[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices pulled back after gaining yesterday in two-trade amid the ongoing geopolitical backdrop

Geopolitically driven crude moves of this kind have historically followed a familiar sequence: an initial risk premium on supply disruption headlines, followed by fade once physical flows are confirmed uninterrupted, with the premium rebuilding only if strikes actually curtail export capacity or transit. The distinction that matters here is between attacks on energy infrastructure, which tighten regional supply and support the prompt end of the curve and timespreads, and ceasefire or deal rhetoric from Washington, which compresses that same premium without changing physical balances. Claims of an imminent end to the Iran conflict sit in the second category and have tended to be walked back or deferred, so verbal intervention has usually produced shorter-lived moves than confirmed changes to sanctioned or disrupted supply. The tells are whether strikes on Ukrainian energy sites alter actual loadings or refinery runs, and whether ceasefire language is followed by anything verifiable; absent that, two-way trade around headline flow is the established pattern. Gold holding a soft tone against a weaker dollar, and copper tracking Asian risk sentiment rather than the geopolitical tape, fits the standard split where precious metal trades the currency and rates channel while base metals trade the growth channel.