[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices remain afloat amid the Middle East conflict and with the IRGC claiming that a supertanker exploded after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, which US CENTCOM denied

Attacks and claimed attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz have a long history, and the crude market's established reflex is to price an insurance and freight risk premium first and verify later, since roughly a fifth of global oil supply transits the chokepoint and even an unconfirmed incident lifts war-risk rates and voyage costs. The worth-noting distinction here is the denial: when a claim from one side is publicly rebutted by the US military, the premium has historically proved partial and prone to fade unless physical evidence, AIS tracking or insurance market repricing corroborates it, whereas confirmed strikes on tankers have previously held the bid for longer. The broader backdrop of Houthi fire toward Saudi Arabia and Iran ruling out talks keeps the geopolitical floor under crude independent of any single incident, a pattern seen through past Gulf escalation cycles where the curve's front spreads carried the risk rather than outright flat price alone. Gold's muted gain with the FOMC pending fits the usual pre-meeting compression, with the event risk capping haven demand. The tells from here are tanker traffic data through the strait, war-risk premium quotes and any corroboration or further denial, alongside the Wednesday decision for metals.