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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Precious metals continue to rebound as PBoC buys gold for a 15th consecutive month

The continued purchasing of gold by the PBoC for the 15th consecutive month highlights a significant structural demand for the precious metal, which is likely underpinning the recent rebound in gold prices.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Precious metals continue to rebound as PBoC buys gold for a 15th consecutive month

[MARKET ANALYSIS] European equities are trading in the green, with the FTSE MIB (+1.3%) outperforming on the back of gains in UniCredit (+6.2%)

[MARKET ANALYSIS] JGBs started the bearish action before reports around Chinese banks UST holdings added, Gilts gapped lower despite McSweeney's departure

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  • Precious metals have continued Friday's rebound, with spot gold regaining the USD 5k/oz handle. Over the weekend, the PBoC announced its 15th straight month of gold buying, which reinforces the key structural driver of major central bank buying of the gold bullion. The dollar has also weakened at the start of the European session, weighed on by the Bloomberg report that China is urging banks to limit US Treasuries exposure.
  • Silver has gradually bid higher as European trade continues, returning back above USD 80/oz and briefly topping above USD 82/oz.
  • The gold/silver ratio has also returned near the 66 level, after falling from a peak of 83 late in November as silver surged and outperformed the yellow metal. The recent rebound in the ratio makes sense as the key structural drivers for gold have remained intact while the drivers for silver are not as clear.
  • 3M LME Copper gapped higher but trades muted in a USD 13.02k-13.14k/t band, heading into the Chinese New Year celebrations.
Context

As central banks, particularly in China, ramp up their gold reserves, this could intensify bullish sentiment in the market and drive gold higher, especially as the dollar weakens. This broader demand dynamic may also influence silver's performance relative to gold, suggesting a complex interplay in precious metal valuations moving forward.

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