[MARKET ANALYSIS] Quiet FX action in anticipation of US-Iran agreement; SEK benefits from hotter than exp. inflation

The SEK move fits the established template for an inflation surprise against a central bank forecast, a modest bid that endorses rather than shifts the policy path, with the distinction that matters being whether the print changes the terminal view or merely confirms it; here bank forecasters holding their year-end calls unchanged is the tell that it is the latter. The Hormuz reopening narrative is the larger swing factor for the dollar bloc, and the pattern in past de-escalation episodes of this kind has been that the oil leg moves first and hardest, with the FX pass-through arriving muted and largely pre-priced, consistent with crude already down heavily on the week while the dollar index sits flat. The usual sequence is that confirmation of a widely anticipated agreement produces limited additional follow-through, while any re-escalation reverses the crude move asymmetrically. The labour data run-in to payrolls is the next scheduled catalyst, and the soft ADP passing without a dollar reaction signals that only the headline print itself is likely to break the ranges. Scheduled hawkish commentary from known hawks tends to be discounted when it matches their prior form.