[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures edge higher amid lower yields; JGBs benefit from weakness in Japanese stocks

The pattern here is a classic risk-hedging divergence across the three major curves: the long end catching a bid where equity weakness and disinflationary impulses dominate, and underperforming where domestic politics intrude. USTs tracking a tech-led equity pullback with support from softer crude is a well-worn sequence; crude-driven relief tends to express itself through breakevens first, so the durability of the bid usually depends on whether the oil move persists rather than on the sanctions headlines themselves. The Bund underperformance against that same crude backdrop fits the precedent that European social unrest episodes widen the periphery and weigh on the core via fiscal and supply concerns, separating European duration from the broader haven move. In Japan, the equity-weakness bid into JGBs colliding with hawkish BoJ and IMF commentary is the recurring tension of a tightening cycle: haven flows cap yields on risk-off days, but guidance around accelerating normalisation sets a floor beneath them, leaving the curve prone to sharp reversals on any inflation surprise. The distinction worth drawing is between the equity-driven bid, which fades when stocks stabilise, and the policy-driven sell pressure, which is structural. Follow-ons are crude's reaction to the sanctions waivers, any escalation in the European protests, and the next round of BoJ speaker commentary.