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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Tech sell-off stabilises in Europe/US; NFP ahead

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.3%) have succumbed to the broader AI/memory selling pressure seen over the past couple of days. Major indices are currently lower by between 0.4-1.6%, with the IBEX 35 faring a little better vs peers, whilst the SMI is the clear laggard. European sectors are entirely in the red. Focus of course is on Tech, which sits towards the top of the pile, as the sector attempts to stabilise in Europe/US.
  • Overnight action saw memory giants SK Hynix (-10.3%) and Samsung (-6.3%) extend lower, which weighed on the KOSPI, which closed with losses of c. 6%. Over in Japan, Kioxia (-8.7%) also traded in the red, bringing its WTD losses to 36.7%. The US session is yet to get underway, but the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) has fallen just shy of 25% this week.
  • As mentioned in yesterday’s piece, losses were sparked in the aftermath of the US Democratic sweep, with traders fearing heightened AI regulation. Nonetheless, the memory environment remains incredibly tight, with several companies noting strong demand into 2029, and LTAs. Further adding to this trend, TrendForce (written 5th Nov), wrote that the tight supply situation will continue into 2027; “overall DRAM bit supply will slow to 24% in 2027”.
  • Balancing the debate is a recent post from Citrini’s Jukan. He recently posted on X, following conversations with veteran investors, that** memory LTAs are “meaningless”**. The investor opined that once prices fall, customers “gladly forfeit prepayments” and walk away from their agreements.
  • US equity futures are mixed; the ES and NQ attempt to reclaim some of the hefty losses seen on Thursday, which saw the Nasdaq close with losses in excess of 6%. The RTY is essentially flat whilst the YM trades lower; a reversal of the rotation out of tech is seen so far. Aside from what is likely just a bounce from recent losses, the WSJ reported that Anthropic’s ARR topped USD 80bln at the end of October, vs some expectations of mid-70bln.
  • In pre-market trade, NVDA (+1.2%) and SanDisk (+8%) both rebound off near-term lows; it remains to be seen whether this is sustained into the open, and throughout the US session. A clear sentiment changer comes in the form of the US NFP report, whereby the US economy is expected to add 65k nonfarm payrolls in October; the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%.

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