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[MARKET ANALYSIS] UK GDP overlooked as UK politics remains in focus; Rayner's name potentially added to the hat, Streeting said to challenge Starmer today

UK political developments are overshadowing economic data, particularly the GDP report, which appears to have minimal impact on the markets.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] UK GDP overlooked as UK politics remains in focus; Rayner's name potentially added to the hat, Streeting said to challenge Starmer today

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  • UK Politics remains the centre of focus for GBP which continues to underperform against the Buck.
  • Latest UK political updates suggest former Deputy PM Rayner may put herself forward in a leadership race after HMRC cleared her tax case. Rayner has indicated she favours supporting Manchester Mayor Burnham, which potentially strengthens his bid. Burnham, however, still needs to find an MP willing to step aside to spark a by-election and give Burnham a route to Parliament; reports and denials on the seat in question continue. Some analysts are circulating a survey from Survation, which indicates that soft-left Burnham is the most popular candidate amongst Labour members by a margin.
  • Focus now is on Health Secretary Streeting, who will hold a pre-scheduled briefing on the NHS around 09:30 BST; note, this does include a Q&A. To remind, Streeting reportedly told allies he was preparing to resign and trigger a leadership contest as soon as today.
  • UK GDP data this morning will likely be overlooked by the Political situation. Cable saw short-lived upside on the release as it only shows c. one month of the Middle East conflict. ING, in its morning note, explained the usual caveats to the strong data, writing that they "aren't convinced by the UK's first quarter growth performance", and the outlet also said the data won’t change much for the BoE, which is singularly focused on the impending inflation spike and the risk of it spilling into wage growth.
  • GBP/USD (-0.1%) trades lower for the third consecutive session, but continues to find support at 1.35, while the EUR cross is a touch firmer, within narrow 0.8658-0.8668 parameters; downside support at 0.8650, to the upside, resistance is 0.8670.
Context

GBP is under pressure amid leadership discussions, contributing to its underperformance against the USD, while the focus remains on potential changes in political leadership that may affect future economic policies and market sentiment.

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