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[MARKET ANALYSIS] UK PM Starmer resigns, Burnham seemingly set to be appointed as PM mid-July

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] UK PM Starmer resigns, Burnham seemingly set to be appointed as PM mid-July

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UK MP Burnham, when asked if he would call a General election, says "that is jumping too far ahead"

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  • UK PM Starmer has announced that he will step down as Labour leader and, by extension, PM once a new Labour leader has been identified. The process for this formally commences on the 9th of July and concludes on the 16th, just before the summer recess.
  • As it stands, the only firm candidate is the new Makerfield MP, Andy Burnham. The route for Burnham has become much easier following Wes Streeting saying he will not contest and instead will support Burnham. Thereafter, reporting suggested no deal had been done to facilitate this, but it would be logical to expect Streeting to be given a top cabinet job.
  • The main points to focus on in the interim are as follows: 1) a shock contest, 2) Burnham's Chancellor.
  • 1), no other candidate aside from Streeting has been both vocal about challenging and had sufficient support to do so. Nonetheless, we remain attentive to potential moves from MPs including, and primarily, Angela Rayner; albeit, there is nothing to indicate she intends to challenge at this point.
  • 2), in recent months, there was a suggestion that the current Chancellor, Reeves, could remain even if PM Starmer was ousted. However, reporting in the last few days has seemingly made clear that Burnham intends to switch Reeves out. The main contender had been Miliband, who would be seen as the worst scenario for markets given his energy stance and political skew. Since the Makerfield by-election, weekend reporting in numerous outlets has moved away from Miliband. Instead, the likes of Streeting, Mahmood, Cooper and others have been touted.
  • Chancellor aside, who he appoints as Foreign Secretary will draw scrutiny as they will need to negotiate relations with the EU and US. For the EU, the first crunch point is the EU reset summit on the 22nd of July, by which time Burnham will be PM if no one challenges him.
  • More generally, other dates to note include: NATO summit on the 7th of July (Starmer will still be PM), Labour Party Conference across the 27th-30th of September.

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