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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD firmer against most peers but DXY capped by continued JPY outperformance

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • G10s are mostly weaker against the Buck bar EUR (U/C) and JPY (+0.4%). NOK (-0.9%) underperforms amid sharply lower oil prices.
  • USD is firmer against most G10 peers except the Yen, whose gains are sufficient to keep DXY unchanged. A lot of moving parts, including geopolitics and Treasury action in FX markets. Geopolitics remain bearish for the USD, with Brent Oct'26 down ~7% after the US cancelled planned strikes on Iran and anticipates negotiations to resume today. Aside from this (and geopolitics) is incoming negotiations commentary and some US data, including the July ISM manufacturing release. DXY found buyers below 99.50 and the 100 DMA at 99.70. The next region to watch is around 100, which has proven sticky throughout the last few sessions.
  • No real move seen to the final EZ manufacturing PMI read, where revised metrics were broadly unchanged despite the revision period coinciding with energy upside related to the breakdown of the US-Iran MoU. Within the EZ-wide release, commentary downplayed the strong figure, noting "factories continue to reduce headcounts.... the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline numbers might suggest." EUR/USD gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 1.1520 base; the 50 DMA is likely to be support at 1.1480. EUR/JPY gradually moved higher amid profit-taking around 180. Elsewhere, FT reported that the US Treasury intervened in the market by buying JPY for EUR.
  • Several factors continue to buoy JPY after roughly 5% gains against the Buck over the past three sessions. Remarks from top FX diplomat Mimura coincided with USD/JPY downside overnight. He noted "they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention" and "will respond to FX in coordination with monetary policy", implying the BoJ should continue policy normalisation in reflection of the currency; remarks which pushed the pair to a 155.26 base, a level not seen since may where the low was 155.03; it is essentially no-man's-land below with the next support at the 152-53 region. JPMorgan sees little chance coordinated intervention would drive a sustained rally that pushes the pair below 150. ING said it struggles to see the action driving USD/JPY sustainably below 155, while Oxford Economics said intervention will likely have a longer-lasting effect compared with past unilateral interventions, but it still will not be enough to reverse the trend of yen weakness.

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