[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD firms against most peers as yields remain at highs; NZD underperforming after RBNZ fails to impress hawks, JPY outperforms after BoJ hawk Takata

The RBNZ episode fits a familiar template, a hike delivered as expected but a projected path sitting below market pricing, which in past episodes of this kind has tended to leave the currency offered until either the data force the bank's projections up or OIS pricing converges down to them; that convergence, and whether subsequent prints validate the bank's caution, is the tell. The yen leg is the mirror image, a known hawk floating a larger increment is historically a marginal signal unless the centre of the board shifts, so the durability of JPY strength hinges on whether the Governor's commentary and upcoming data keep a near-term hike live rather than on the dissenter's preference. AUD/NZD at cycle highs is the cleanest expression of the policy-path divergence and is the cross most sensitive to follow-through in either direction. Worth noting the caveat that remarks from peripheral MPC members, whether hawkish at the BoJ or dovish at the RBNZ, have historically mattered only insofar as they preview the median voter.