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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD flat and awaiting PPI, NOK hit on soft inflation data, high-yielders AUD and GBP lifted

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD flat and awaiting PPI, NOK hit on soft inflation data, high-yielders AUD and GBP lifted

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  • G10s mixed against the Buck, which is flat on the day despite being off recent lows. AUD and GBP lead; NOK underperforms.
  • DXY looks to breach 101.00 after lifting from recent lows in the wake of cool US CPI on Tuesday. As Fed Chair Warsh said during the House testimony on Tuesday, one series does not make a trend, so while bets are trimmed for an immediate hike (prev. markets saw a 50% probability of tightening in July), eyes remain on incoming data. In addition to the post-CPI bounce, the Buck is being helped by energy benchmarks, which remain elevated amid a lack of positive Gulf newsflow. Due today is US PPI (ahead of the preferred measure PCE on 30th July), alongside a slew of Fed speakers: Williams, Musalem, Warsh (senate testimony) & Cook.
  • NOK is the worst G10 performer after the Norges Bank’s preferred inflation gauge, CPI-ATE, came in cooler than analyst/Norges Bank forecasts. NOK saw immediate pressure on the release (which was originally scheduled for 10th July), NOK/SEK fell 0.3% to a 0.9944 trough, while USD/NOK was lifted to a 9.72 peak. Following the data, ING writes, "we expect good demand for the krone on dips" .
  • AUD and GBP are the best-performing G10 currencies, helped by the above factor as the cooler-than-expected US CPI trimmed bets for near-term Fed tightening, increasing appetite for these high-yielders. For GBP specifically, the UK press suggested Energy Secretary Miliband was less-favoured in the race for Chancellor, now Foreign Secretary Cooper and Home Secretary Mahmood are favourites for the job. Markets think that Mahmood would be fiscally conservative given her view on immigration; however, she lacks experience in economic roles, whereas Cooper previously worked as Chief Secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown. GBP/USD +0.1% and either side of the 1.34 mark.

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