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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD pressured and EUR outperforms in a slight breather of recent rate differential led moves

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD pressured and EUR outperforms in a slight breather of recent rate differential led moves

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  • In brief, the USD is under modest pressure as the pullback in energy and yields weighs, Antipodeans lag on the risk tone while FX more broadly is slightly firmer vs the USD.
  • Today is spot month/quarter-end. As a reminder, Barclays model was neutral overall for the USD against all majors, formed of a moderate USD buying signal on the month-end, but countered by a strong USD sell signal for quarter-end.
  • As mentioned, the USD finds itself under modest pressure. DXY at a 101.18 base, but well clear of the 100.76 WTD low, with the index set to see the week out around the middle of its range. In brief, a tale of two halves for the index which began the week on the front foot before reversing after Thursday’s data deluge and continuing to slip since.
  • EUR outperforms as a result of the continued USD pressure. No real move to the ECB CES, which showed a moderation in the 12-month price view and an uptick in the growth view. The growth revision is not enough to provide comfortable space for further tightening, and equally the price moderation is not sufficient to take another move off the table. Nonetheless, the price moderation does add to the post-PMI & Lagarde dovish tilt we have seen in recent days.
  • In more detail, EUR/USD has breached 1.14 to the upside. Picking up gradually across the morning, as the US data on Thursday has and continues to permit an unwinding of some of the yield differential moves we have seen in recent days, with the Fed more-hawkish and ECB mixed but net less-hawkish, particularly from Lagarde as referenced. However, while it has hit a 1.1407 peak, EUR remains in the red on the week and continuing the near unbroken downward trend of the last seven weeks.
  • Elsewhere, G10s generally are slightly firmer against the USD. With GBP the next-best behind EUR, comfortably above 1.3200 and flat/firmer WTD, but again, still towards post June policy announcement lows, as BoE expectations coalesce around the on hold for the foreseeable narrative, despite the hawkish dissenters.
  • CAD, JPY and CHF all faring around equally. Of those, USD/JPY participants remain on watch for potential intervention risk, particularly as Japanese authorities tend to target Friday’s and go with the market move rather than fighting it. USD/JPY just above a 161.53 base, and while the JPY is firmer today the bearish trend remains near-enough unbroken at a weekly level over the last month and a half.
  • Finally, Antipodeans and specifically the Aussie lag given the risk tone. Set to end the week at a 0.6875 low, having fallen markedly from above 0.70 on Monday, given the bouts of risk-off we have seen and as much of that has been APAC driven.

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