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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD tentative into CPI; Kiwi and energy exporters outperform

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD tentative into CPI; Kiwi and energy exporters outperform

[MARKET ANALYSIS] European indices slide as escalating US-Iran tensions sour trade sentiment

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  • G10s are mostly firmer as markets are reluctant to buy Dollars into US CPI, after it gained on Monday. Kiwi is the clear outperformer; energy exporters CAD and NOK also perform well.
  • Geopolitics (see below) remain constructive for USD with Brent over USD 85/bbl, in addition to this, hawkish Fed speak from Waller saw markets assign a 50% probability of a Fed hike this month. (“Fed would need to consider a rate hike in the near term if core inflation is hot this week”). Despite these factors, the Buck is negative on the day as it stabilises below Monday’s 101.32 peak ahead of a packed session which is slated to see US CPI, and Warsh’s testimony to the US house which potentially sees a text release at 13:30 BST. The level to watch if momentum continues today is the 21DMA @ 101.00, should CPI come in hot, Monday’s 101.32 peak will be in focus, thereafter is July 2nd’s 101.43 high.
  • Energy exporters NOK and CAD are among the best performers today as energy benchmarks firm on continued US-Iran strikes with US President Trump threatening to hit Iran’s underground nuclear facility. “Pickaxe Mountain” - which would be a clear escalation. Alongside this, Iran's armed forces have reportedly begun targeting US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. NOK/SEK is choppy in tandem with crude prices, but ultimately has a bullish bias with the cross looking to test par half a percent away. USD/CAD moved lower overnight to mark a session low of 1.4098.
  • Kiwi is the best performer once again as markets add to RBNZ tightening bets, interest rate futures now implying 58bps by year-end - around 5bps added vs. the end of Monday’s London session. Upside which comes after hawkish remarks from RBNZ's Conway and a strong quarterly NZIER Business Confidence
  • This marks a cumulative 2.3% gain against the Buck since RBNZ’s 8th July confab, now market attention will be on CPI due 20th July. NZD/USD surpassed 0.58, where it marked its session high.

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