[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD/JPY nears 162.00 again, Kiwi softer as shadow board recommends against the market consensus

Newsquawk Staff · 6 Jul 2026, 02:54 UTC

DXY is firmer today, trading at the top end of its 100.83-100.98 range. The basket of currencies against the USD has weakened in recent sessions, it was primarily driven by JPY strength, potentially driven by intervention. This week's focus will be on the ISM Services PMI on Monday and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD initially traded relatively contained to start the week, but have since extended lower as the dollar picks up strength.
USD/JPY has started to rebound to start Monday’s trade, trending higher ever since the open and currently trades at the top end of its 161.32-161.85 range. As USD/JPY nears the 162.00 mark, focus will be on any further intervention by Japanese officials.
Antipodeans are mixed, with the Kiwi underperforming compared to the Aussie. Ahead of the RBNZ policy announcement on Wednesday, the New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board recommended that the RBNZ hold the OCR at 2.25%, which is against the market consensus of a 25bp hike to 2.50%. An 80% chance of a hike is priced in, so a hold would be seen as dovish and see a further reversal lower in the Kiwi.

What our latest note said

EU Market Open, 23 Oct, 06:20 UTC · what it led with

APAC equities were under pressure, mostly following the negative tech-led Wall St. handover; European futures now point to a contained open.
USD modestly firmer vs major peers, EUR awaits Moody's and weekend French activity while the NZD made a marginal recovery.

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