[MARKET ANALYSIS] XAU extends to fresh post-NFP highs, crude contained

Newsquawk Staff · 3 Jul 2026, 08:48 UTC

A contained start to a limited end to the week, given the US Independence Day holiday. WTI and Brent are near enough unchanged, and around the middle of c. USD 1.00/bbl parameters.
Newsflow in the European morning has, thus far, been light. Overnight, US President Trump cautioned that Iran does have some missiles left which could be wiped out, while the administration pushed back on the notion of Iran charging Hormuz-related fees; as a reminder, reports suggested Europe was beginning to accept that such fees were inevitable.
Elsewhere, one to keep an eye on is a report that some US officials believe that Israel has been plotting to kill top Iranian negotiators, according to the NY Times.
Currently, Brent is firmer by around USD 0.15/bbl and just shy of the USD 72/bbl mark, set to end the week lower by around USD 2/bbl.
Once again, Dutch TTF is on the front foot. Though, given the moves we have seen in recent days, the magnitude of today’s upside is just EUR 0.10/MWh, above EUR 44/MWh, just off the WTD peak of EUR 44.93/MWh. Drivers for the space remain the same as those discussed in recent sessions.
Spot gold remains in the green, extending on the post-NFP move, and holds just off the USD 4195/oz peak that printed in the middle of the APAC session. Upside that occurred in proximity to fresh reports of Gaza explosions, and the latest jawboning from Japanese officials.
Base peers follow the risk tone higher. 3M LME Copper at a USD 13.44k peak. Specifics for the complex light, aside from the macro tone.

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 21 Oct, 10:29 UTC · what it led with

Pakistan Army Chief Munir brought the "final warning" from the United States to Iranian officials, which called on Iran to submit to the US demands for concessions on the nuclear issue before taking any other steps.
The UK government has approved the Jackdaw North Sea gas field.

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Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%
Mediation efforts said that "Qatar and Pakistan presented a 'compromise proposal' that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
WTI crude−4.6%
"A breakthrough is expected to be announced this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing a source.
WTI crude−1.1%

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