[MARKET UPDATE] Crude benchmarks lift to session highs, gains of c. USD 2.00/bbl for WTI and Brent, to the continued detriment of fixed income, stocks and FX vs the USD

Intraday energy-led risk-off is a familiar pattern: sharp crude gains with no headline attached tend to reflect a geopolitical supply concern or positioning squeeze, and the transmission is the established one, higher oil feeding inflation expectations at the front of the curve, weighing on duration and equities, and pulling the dollar up as a haven and rate differential trade. The distinction that matters for follow-through is whether the driver is supply (a disruption or escalation, which historically sustains the move and drags breakevens higher) or a technical squeeze and flow, which has tended to fade into the close. The lagging leg to watch is rates: if the belly and front end reprice on energy-driven inflation rather than growth fear, that confirms the supply-side read; if oil and bonds fall together, it points to flow. Follow-ons are any wire confirmation of a catalyst, the move in crude term structure (backwardation steepening signals genuine tightness rather than positioning), and whether FX high-beta commodity currencies hold up against the dollar. As an unattributed market update, the read on the tape is clear but the cause is not.