[MARKET UPDATE] Mixed start to Asia-Pac trade ahead of this week's key meetings in the US including the Trump-Xi summit, while there are also thinned conditions with the closure of Japanese markets through to Wednesday
Sessions framed around an imminent US-China leaders' meeting have historically traded in a holding pattern: range-bound price action with thin conviction, as desks avoid adding directional risk into a binary headline event whose outcomes split cleanly between a de-escalatory communique and a breakdown in tone.
CBA has brought forward its RBA rate hike call to September from November, while ANZ now expects the RBA to raise rates by 25bps in September and November
PBoC is expected to set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.6951 (prev. 6.7521)
[MARKET UPDATE] Mixed start to Asia-Pac trade ahead of this week's key meetings in the US including the Trump-Xi summit, while there are also thinned conditions with the closure of Japanese markets through to Wednesday
South Korea September 1st-20th Exports rose 78.3% Y/Y, Importsrose 26.7% Y/Y, Trade Balance at a provisional surplus of USD 22.97bln
USTR Greer says implemented board of trade, while US and Chinese teams continue working on board of trade agreement, adds board of trade from Chinese side likely to include consumer goods and low-tech items
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The transmission channel in past episodes of this kind has run first through the China-sensitive complex, the Australian dollar, offshore yuan, copper and the regional equity exporters, with haven pairs and gold taking the other side on disappointment. The closure of Japanese cash markets compounds the usual pre-event torpor; with Tokyo absent, Treasury futures and yen pairs trade on reduced depth, and episodes of this kind have tended to exaggerate moves on marginal news until the venue reopens. The distinction worth drawing is between substance and choreography at the summit: agreements on purchases or tariff truces have historically faded within sessions, while shifts in the strategic framing have proved stickier for the yuan fixing and regional risk. The follow-ons are the pre-meeting briefings from both sides and any change in the daily fix as a signal of intent. As a session preview rather than a data point, the note carries no signal beyond positioning and liquidity.
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