[MARKET UPDATE] Oil and dollar gain while stocks and bonds fall as US President Trump says we do not need a deal with Iran and those days have long since passed

Trump also directed VP Vance for total focus on domestic issues; Vance had been seen as the potential face of securing a peace agreement with Iran. Reports via WSJ said there had been prelim discussions for Vance to meet with Iran's Security Chief Rezaei. However, Trump's direction appears to take Vance away from the Iran issue.

Headlines where a US president publicly closes a negotiating channel with Iran have historically produced the standard risk-off bundle: crude higher on renewed supply-risk premium, the dollar bid on haven flows, equities and bonds sold together when the move is read as inflationary rather than growth-negative. That joint stock-bond decline is the tell that the market is pricing an oil shock channel, not a flight-to-quality one, since in pure risk aversion Treasuries typically catch a bid. The staffing detail matters as precedent: removing the figure previously identified as the diplomatic face of a deal is the kind of signal that converts rhetoric into perceived policy, and markets have tended to fade pure rhetoric while holding moves tied to personnel and process changes. The distinction worth drawing is between a durable rupture of the back channel and a negotiating posture, since past episodes of this kind have seen both, with crude premia building on the former and unwinding on the latter. The follow-ons are any Iranian response, movement of military assets in the Gulf, and whether tanker freight and insurance rates in the Strait of Hormuz begin to reprice, which is where a real supply-risk premium would first show. Gold's behaviour alongside the dollar is a secondary tell on how much of the move is geopolitical haven demand versus rate repricing.