[MARKET UPDATE]: Oil gains, while indices, Treasuries, and spot gold sell off after reports of an American attack in Iran

Reports of direct American military action inside Iran sit in the category of events where the initial tape reaction is reflexive and the durable question is retaliation: the market pattern across past Gulf escalation episodes is a crude-led move, an equity and duration selloff if the event reads as inflationary rather than purely risk-off, and a gold bid that fades fastest of the three. The cross-asset combination described here, oil up with Treasuries and gold both offered, is the less common configuration; it is consistent with a market pricing the supply and inflation channel over the safe-haven channel, which has historically meant traders are treating the event as a contained strike rather than the opening of a sustained conflict. The distinction that has mattered in comparable episodes is whether Iranian energy infrastructure or Hormuz transit is touched: strikes that leave export capacity intact have tended to see the crude premium retrace within days, while anything threatening flows through the strait reprices freight, insurance, and the crude curve's front spread and holds. Watch items are the character of any Iranian response, statements out of Washington clarifying scope, and whether the move in brent timespreads confirms or contradicts the flat-price move. Until the retaliation question resolves, headline sensitivity in both directions typically stays elevated and first moves in these episodes have frequently overshot.