[MARKET UPDATE] Risk-on trade seen as reports Iran's Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue got wider airing; downside in oil and the Dollar, with upside in US equity futures, Treasuries and spot gold

Risk-on trade seen as reports Iran's Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue got wider airing; downside in oil and the Dollar, with upside in US equity futures, Treasuries and spot gold.

Headlines reporting scope for dialogue between Tehran and Washington have historically produced the same cross-asset signature: crude sells off on reduced supply-disruption risk, the dollar loses its haven bid, and equities and Treasuries catch a relief bid, with gold's direction more two-sided as lower geopolitical premium cuts against a softer dollar. The pattern in prior episodes of this kind is that the initial move prices the headline, not the substance; what has determined whether it holds is follow-through in the form of confirmed channels, named intermediaries, or scheduled contacts, none of which a statement of delegated authority establishes. Notable here is the source: authority described as flowing from the Supreme Leader to the government is the precondition markets have historically treated as necessary for any Iranian negotiating position to be durable, since presidential-level overtures without clerical backing have repeatedly failed to carry. The tells worth watching are any reciprocal signal from Washington, movement in regional freight and insurance costs as a check on how seriously physical markets are repricing, and whether crude's decline extends through the curve or stays concentrated in the prompt. As with comparable de-escalation headlines, reversals on denial or non-confirmation have been the norm often enough that the first move is typically faded absent confirmation.