[MARKET UPDATE] US equity futures begin flat, while oil futures are higher after US President Trump rejected a deal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but expects talks with Iran will resume this week

The strait carries a substantial share of seaborne crude, so the barrel has historically traded the probability of disruption rather than the disruption itself, pricing a risk premium that bleeds out when talks continue and spikes only on physical escalation such as tanker seizures, mining, or insurance and freight repricing in the Gulf. The distinction worth drawing is between rhetoric, which moves the front of the crude curve and time spreads, and an actual interruption to flows, which would transmit through freight rates, refinery margins, and the Brent-Dubai and WTI-Brent differentials. Flat equity futures alongside firmer oil is the standard configuration for this kind of headline: the energy bid stays contained while the negotiating track is intact. Worth watching are whether talks are confirmed and at what level, any movement in Gulf shipping insurance costs, and whether Iranian officials echo or contradict the expectation of resumption, since divergence there has tended to be the tell that the premium is mispriced.