Mediators expected to hold separate talks with US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US, according to sources

The substantive tell is that discussions centre on an amended Iranian proposal: prior negotiating rounds of this kind have tended to turn on the sequence and verification of reciprocal steps rather than on headline frameworks, so the content of the amendments matters more than the fact of the meeting. Foreign minister-level attendance signals engagement above the technical channel, though in comparable episodes that has cut both ways, indicating either genuine intent or a bid to shape the narrative. For oil pricing, the established transmission runs through expectations for sanctioned supply returning to market and through risk premia on Gulf shipping and insurance, with indirect-talks headlines historically producing only modest moves until something verifiable emerges. Worth watching are any readouts from the mediators, movement on the proposal's sequencing, and whether the format shifts from separate to direct contact, which in past processes has marked the inflection point.