Mediators push to break US-Iran deadlock, FT reports

Sequencing disputes of this kind are typically the sticking point rather than a detail, since each side wants the other's concession locked in before its own, which is why prior rounds have repeatedly reached amended-draft stage and then unravelled. The transmission channel to crude is the waiver itself: any reinstatement would return Iranian barrels to a market that has already priced and absorbed shadow-flow volumes, meaning the delta is official export capacity plus lower freight, insurance, and discount costs on existing flows rather than entirely new supply. Enforcement posture matters as much as the headline; previous waiver regimes saw Iranian exports re-rated gradually as banks and insurers gained comfort, so any price adjustment has tended to arrive in stages rather than on announcement. Worth noting that intermediary-mediated drafts have a track record of leaking precisely when momentum is real but fragile, and official confirmation or denial from either capital is the usual next tell. The follow-ons are Iranian response to the amended text, any US statement on sanctions posture, and the IAEA dimension, where inspector access has historically been the most durable verification benchmark in deals of this type.