Mexican GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q2) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.3%

Preliminary GDP prints from Mexico are typically two-stage affairs: the advance estimate tends to get confirmed or nudged at the final reading, and large revisions between the two are the exception rather than the rule, so a modest beat of this size rarely survives as a story once the detail arrives. The transmission into MXN has historically run through the rate differential with the US rather than through growth itself, since Banxico's easing path has been the dominant driver of the peso and growth data matters mainly insofar as it shifts the perceived pace of cuts. A print slightly above consensus has tended to argue for continued gradualism rather than any change of course, and past episodes where activity surprised on the upside have seen Banxico retain its cautious cadence given the inflation mandate. The detail worth watching is the sector split, domestic demand versus export-facing industry, since it is the composition rather than the headline that has informed the board's rhetoric on slack. Follow-ons are the final GDP revision, the accompanying activity indicators, and any shift in Banxico commentary ahead of the next decision.