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Mexican Interest Rate Decision 6.50% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.5%); vote was unanimous

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Mexican Interest Rate Decision 6.50% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.5%); vote was unanimous

Banxico maintains rates at 6.50% as expected

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  • The Mexican economy is anticipated to expand during Q2 2026, after having contracted during the previous one.
  • Economic slack is expected to continue throughout the forecast horizon and significant downward risks to economic activity persist.
  • Headline inflation forecasts were revised downwards for Q2 2026 due to lower levels of non-core inflation anticipated for that period.
  • Core inflation forecasts were adjusted slightly upwards between Q2-Q4 2026.
  • Headline inflation is still expected to converge to the target in Q2 2027.
  • The balance of risks for the trajectory of inflation within the forecast horizon remains biased to the upside.
  • The changes in economic policy by the US administration and a possible extension of geopolitical conflicts continue adding uncertainty to the forecasts. Their effects could imply pressures on inflation on both sides of the balance.
  • Looking ahead, the Governing Board estimates that it will be appropriate to maintain the reference rate at its current level. It judges that the monetary policy stance is well-suited to face the challenges posed by the macroeconomic environment, including those associated with the international context.
  • The central bank reaffirms its commitment to its primary mandate and the need to continue its efforts to consolidate an environment of low and stable inflation.

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