Mexico is growing confident that the US deal will cut steel and Auto tariffs

In past steel trade episodes, final arrangements have tended to substitute volume caps or tariff-rate quotas for flat duties, which preserves a ceiling on supply even as headline rates fall, a distinction that matters for Mexican mill margins and for the premium structure of US domestic steel over imported equivalents. For autos the channel runs through rules-of-origin compliance costs and supply-chain routing rather than the sticker tariff alone, so partial relief has historically benefited assemblers with established North American footprints more than parts exporters at the margin. The tell in episodes like this is whether the US counterpart matches the rhetoric; one-sided optimism from the smaller party has often preceded slippage or last-minute conditionality. Worth watching are the formal instruments, quota volumes versus rate cuts, any snapback provisions, and sequencing against the broader US tariff review calendar.