NBP member Duda expects rates to stay unchanged through at least end-2026, with any cut dependent on inflation stabilising at the 2.5% target; notes of a possible temporary rise above 3.5% next year

The framing here is notable for the asymmetry: a long unchanged path is conditioned on inflation converging to target, while the same remarks concede a temporary overshoot is possible, which in past episodes of this kind has tended to flatten the near end of the implied path while leaving the back end sensitive to each successive CPI print. The distinction worth drawing is between inflation that proves transitory and inflation that settles above target, since conditioning cuts on stabilisation at target converts every monthly release into a live decision variable. PLN transmission in such episodes has typically run through the short rate differential and the front of the swap curve rather than the currency outright. The follow-ons are whether other Council members and the Governor echo the horizon, and how the bank's own projection round treats the flagged overshoot.