NBP's Dabrowski says rates are to remain on hold for 1 or 2 quarters, while after Q1'27 cuts are more likely than hikes

The construction used here, an explicit hold horizon paired with an easing bias beyond it, is the standard way smaller central banks manage the glide path: it anchors the front end while leaving the cutting cycle contingent on the data. The operative distinction is between the timing signal, cuts skewed more likely than hikes after a stated quarter, and the level signal, which is absent, so the repricing channel is the short end of the PLN curve and OIS-implied path rather than the long end. Whether the remark moves anything durably has tended in past episodes to depend on whether it is echoed by the council's median voters or contradicted by the governor at the next press conference. The follow-ons that matter are the subsequent inflation prints, the NBP's own projection rounds, and the voting record at the next meeting, since dissents have been the more reliable tell of where the path actually sits.