Nebius Group NV (NBIS) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EBITDA 465.8mln (exp. 351.8mln), Revenue 980.8mln (exp. 907.2mln)

• Operating income 50.4mln.
• Nebius AI Cloud revenue 973.8mln, +643%.
• ARR 6.4bln as of end-September; no longer sees ARR as the right measure of the business.

• Now expects revenue at the low end of 3.0-3.4bln range (exp. 3.37bln).
• Capex about 27bln, as it invests in capacity for 2027, in particular at owned sites.

• Revenue 12-13bln (exp. 11.98bln).
• Capex 40-45bln.
• Expects prepayments and financing against existing contracts with investment-grade customers to cover 75-85% of capex.
• Expects to reach pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027.

The quarter itself is a clean beat on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA, but in high-capex AI infrastructure names the tape has historically traded the guide and the funding plan rather than the backward print, and here the FY26 revenue frame tilts to the low end of the prior range while capex steps up sharply into 2027. The case distinction that matters for this peer set is owned versus leased capacity: owned sites front-load spend and depreciation, which is why the heavy 2027 capex figure and the pre-tax breakeven timeline arrive together, and why adjusted EBITDA strength can coexist with thin operating income. The decision to drop ARR as a reported measure, in the same release that discloses a large ARR number, is a familiar pattern among companies transitioning from bookings growth to capacity monetisation; past episodes of this kind have been read as signalling that contracted backlog quality and utilisation, not headline bookings, are the binding constraints. The reliance on customer prepayments and contract-backed financing from investment-grade counterparties is the emerging standard funding model in this space, and the share of capex it covers versus what falls to debt or equity issuance has been the recurring focus in comparable names. Worth watching are the financing details behind that coverage range, any counterparty concentration disclosure, and how the FY27 revenue frame squares with the capex that is supposed to generate it.