New explosions heard in Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, and Lavan Island, reports Al Jazeera

In past episodes of this kind, the immediate transmission has run through freight rates, war-risk insurance premia, and tanker routing decisions well before any physical supply loss is confirmed; the crude bid has tended to be largest when export infrastructure or shipping itself is hit, and to fade when the targets prove military and flows continue uninterrupted. The distinction worth drawing is between strikes on naval or missile sites, which historically produce a risk premium that decays within sessions, and damage to loading terminals or harassment of tankers, which reprices the curve more durably. Attribution and the identity of the striker matter for the retaliation sequence: exchanges in this theatre have previously followed a tit-for-tat pattern over subsequent days, with each side calibrating to avoid full closure of the strait. The tells to monitor are tanker traffic through the strait, insurance quotes for Gulf loadings, and any statement from the parties involved confirming or denying scope. As an initial flash from a single outlet, the headline carries the usual verification caveats that have accompanied fast-moving Gulf incidents before.