Newsquawk Daily Bond Auction Preview - 16th September 2026

Long-dated German supply of this kind, ultra-long tenors in the 20- to 30-year-plus bucket, is a test of the structural bid rather than of front-end rate expectations, and the usual tells are the bid-cover ratio, the tail versus the prevailing secondary level, and the size of the retention.

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Newsquawk Daily Bond Auction Preview - 16th September 2026

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  • Germany to sell EUR 2.5bln 3.40% 2047 and 2.90% 2056 Bund
Context

Demand at this part of the curve has historically come from liability-matching accounts, insurers and pension funds, whose appetite is more sensitive to outright yield levels and curve shape than to near-term policy, so a soft auction here tends to steepen the back end rather than reprice the path. Tandem offerings of two long tenors split the demand base, and in past episodes dealers have priced a concession into the longer of the pair; whether that concession is absorbed cleanly is the signal. Worth noting is where these maturities sit relative to existing on-the-run benchmarks, since reopenings of established lines usually clear better than new points on the curve. The follow-ons are the secondary-market reaction of the surrounding ultra-long paper and any read-across to subsequent euro-area long-end supply in the same week.

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