Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 21st October 2026

• APAC stocks were mostly firmer amidst strength in AI names; the NQ outperformed after gaining on SMCI's and SpaceX's mega forecasts.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3%.
• DXY was steady, whilst the AUD outperformed as Goldman Sachs now sees the RBA hiking in November.
• Crude futures were firmer after an earlier brief spike; focus on IRGC threats to internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI (Sep). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, ECB's Cipollone & Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from Abbott, NextEra, CME, AT&T, SAP, Iberdrola, Puig, Tesla, IBM, Meta & Texas Instruments.

As of 06:25BST / 01:25 EDT

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include UK CPI (Sep). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, ECB's Cipollone & Lagarde. Supply from the US, Earnings from Abbott, NextEra, CME, AT&T, SAP, Iberdrola, Puig, Tesla, IBM, Meta & Texas Instruments.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week in Focus.

EQUITIES

• US stocks were mixed as breadth outside of AI-related names was strong, with Healthcare setting fresh YTD highs and gains also seen in Real Estate, Utilities, Financials and Consumer Discretionary. Meanwhile, Communications underperformed on Alphabet and Meta weakness, while Tech saw marginal losses, with the lacklustre performance in AI names reflecting continued concerns over AI-exposed debt. On the earnings front, defence names were in focus, with RTX and Northrop Grumman beating expectations and raising guidance, while GM fell on an FY profit outlook miss despite announcing a USD 20bln buyback.
• SPX +0.28% at 7,713, NDX -0.13% at 29,490, DJI +1.02% at 52,497, RUT +1.67% at 2,774.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said will be very strong on budget this year; will have more growth this year.

DATA RECAP

NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES

• SpaceX (SPCX) Q3 2026 (USD) EPS 0.35 (exp. 0.17), Revenue 14.6bln (exp. 12.98bln), Adj. EBITDA 8.8bln (exp. 6.72bln).
• SpaceX (SPCX) CEO Musk said Starship's Flight 15 will take place next month; Starship will fly weekly in H1 2027 and twice weekly in H2 2027; annual recurring revenue is expected to reach between USD 500bln and USD 1tln by the end of 2027. Musk predicts Starlink will reach 100,000 satellites within three years, increasing network capacity 100-fold. Co. is looking at bringing on an incremental 13GW of compute by the end of 2027. Aviation remains a major growth opportunity.
• SpaceX (SPCX) CEO Musk said demand for AI compute is likely to remain strong, with even older H100s (NVDA) renting for more than when they were new, while warning that a shortage of superintelligence compute could persist for a long time.
• SpaceX (SPCX) CEO Musk said a merger between SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA) would be a good idea but is far from certain, noting that shareholder support is required, including approval from 50% of all Tesla shares. Both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss this idea.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Q1 2027 Prelim (USD): Net Sales 18.5bln-19.5bln (exp. 14.99bln), Adj. Gross Margin 12%-12.5%. Revenue outlook above previous estimate of 14.5bln-15.5bln, driven by increased demand for AI platforms.
• Netflix (NFLX) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 0.87 (exp. 0.82), Revenue 14.6bln (exp. 12.9bln).
• Anthropic saw revenue of USD 16.3bln in H1 '26 (prev. USD 1.1bln a year earlier), and posted an USD 80.7bln net loss driven largely by USD 72bln in accounting charges tied to convertible notes, according to a draft IPO prospectus viewed by WSJ.

• US President Trump, speaking on India, said a trade deal is pretty close.
• US Secretary of State Rubio, on a trade deal with India, said down to some technical details that have to be worked out and anticipate seeing in a matter of weeks, not months.
• No Canada-US trade deal expected before American midterm elections, CBC reported, citing sources.
• Canada and Turkey set to sign joint declaration during Carney's visit to deepen ties in four areas.
• Small businesses file a new lawsuit to block US President Trump's tariffs on Canada.

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly firmer as after-hours strength in AI names, following Super Micro Computer's upbeat guidance and SpaceX's earnings call, offset the mixed lead from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq 100 lagged on AI-debt concerns.
• ASX 200 was little changed amid a busy morning of company updates, including NEXTDC's FY27 guidance cut, while Goldman Sachs shifted to expecting a 25bps RBA hike in November after hawkish remarks from RBA's Hauser.
• Nikkei 225 gained on the AI-led strength in US after-hours trade, shrugging off softer-than-expected exports and a wider-than-expected trade deficit.
• KOSPI outperformed and triggered a sidecar as KOSPI 200 futures jumped 5%, rebounding after Tuesday's sharp slide.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with the latter reversing earlier opening gains, while CAICT data showed a 22.9% Y/Y drop in China's September smartphone shipments and CATL was in focus after its Q3 miss.
• US equity futures were firmer with the NQ outperforming after gains on SMCI's guidance and SpaceX's earnings call.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3%, after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.

FX

• DXY was steady after weakening yesterday against all G10 peers amid the gains in US equities, lower yields and constructive Middle East headlines that were later denied. Focus remains on Iran-US talks via Pakistan and Qatar, while envoy Witkoff is set to meet Russian President Putin today to present an updated Ukraine peace proposal.
• EUR/USD was slightly softer, with French unrest and the wider OAT-Bund spread in focus ahead of Moody's review on Friday.
• GBP/USD was flat following yesterday's outperformance on the surprise drop in UK unemployment, with UK CPI data due later today.
• USD/JPY was little changed after soft Japanese trade data, while BoJ's Himino said upside inflation risks remain high and Kyodo reported the BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the October meeting.
• Antipodeans saw AUD in focus after Goldman Sachs shifted to expecting a 25bps RBA hike in November following hawkish remarks from RBA's Hauser, while NZ credit card spending accelerated.
• PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7172 vs exp. 6.6779 (prev. 6.7200).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures were marginally lower after yesterday's bull-flattening, which was driven by concerns over AI-exposed debt.
• Bund futures pared some of the prior day's gains as oil prices edged higher, whilst the OAT-Bund spread yesterday widened to the most since 2012.
• 10yr JGB futures were little changed after softer-than-expected Japanese trade data and hawkish-leaning remarks from BoJ's Himino.
• BoJ JGB purchase operations for 1–3yr, 5–10yr and over-10yr maturities are in line with planned Q4 2026 amounts.
• Australia sold AUD 1.0bln of 4.25% October 2036 bonds; b/c 3.63x (prev. 4.51x), average yield of 5.2545% (prev. 5.3802%).

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were firmer and extended on gains after an earlier brief spike in the absence of a fresh catalyst, with prices supported by a larger-than-expected private crude draw and Iran's IRGC threatening to target internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Spot gold was slightly softer, while silver underperformed as oil prices edged higher overnight.
• Copper futures were little changed amid the mixed risk tone in the region.
• South Korea's President Lee said the government is preparing to reduce mandatory domestic fuel supply obligations and allow refiners to increase exports.
• US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.9mln (exp. -1.1mln), Gasoline -2.0mln (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate -2.6mln (exp. -1.6mln), Cushing +0.9mln.
• IRGC Navy said a supertanker struck sea mine, exploded off Hormuz; Fars reported; tanker carried 2mln barrels of oil.
• UK government is expected to approve the Jackdaw gas field on Wednesday, according to Politico.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin and Ethereum were slightly lower but largely uneventful overnight.

CENTRAL BANKS

• BoJ's Himino said upside inflation risks remain high, warning that delays in adjusting monetary policy could allow inflation risks to materialise and harm the economy. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with real interest rates low and bank lending expanding rapidly. Medium- and long-term inflation expectations continue to rise. Underlying inflation is nearing the BoJ's 2% target and is expected to converge towards levels consistent with the target. Strong AI demand is boosting domestic capex and exports.
• BoJ is expected to assess whether underlying inflation has reached its 2% target at its October 29th-30th policy meeting, while keeping interest rates unchanged at around 1.25%, Kyodo reported.
• ECB's Lane said greater global euro use may help the ECB control prices.
• BoE's Greene continues to believe that she should proactively lean against the risk of second-round inflation effects and risk of second-round effects is greater than they thought. Wage disinflation appears to have stalled at levels above those consistent with inflation at 2%. Labour market slack might have hit its peak. Economy has shown surprising resilience. Forward-looking data point to pay growth closer to 3.5%.
• Goldman Sachs now expects the RBA to hike rates by 25bps to 4.85% in November, having previously expected rates to remain unchanged.
• RBA's Hauser said monetary policy is working, but the inflation outlook has deteriorated and appears worse than forecast, slightly exceeding expectations. Inflation has remained elevated for an extended period, while inflation expectations must remain anchored to the target. Companies continue to cite cost pressures as their primary concern. There has been some slowing in labour market and housing data. RBA is still finalising its forecasts, and it remains uncertain what decision the Board will make. Looks like quarterly trimmed mean will be higher than expected.
• PBoC injected CNY 80bln via overnight reverse repos, while setting 7-day reverse repo operations at zero.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China's Finance Minister said APEC members support private sector funding, promoting innovation financing and encouraging development banks to play a catalytic role.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said the government is coordinating closely with the BoJ, with no major divergence on the inflation outlook or monetary policy. Noted that tax cuts boost demand and push up prices. Government will ensure proactive and responsible fiscal policy strengthens Japan's supply capacity without accelerating inflation.

DATA RECAP

• New Zealand Credit Card Spending (Sep YY) 6.9% (Prev. 3.5%).
• Japanese Trade Balance (Sep) -536.6B vs. Exp. -181B (Prev. -1111.9B).
• Japanese Exports (Sep YY) 16.7% vs. Exp. 20.1% (Prev. 19.3%).
• Japanese Imports (Sep YY) 18.9% vs. Exp. 19.6% (Prev. 28.0%).
• South Korean PPI (Sep MM) 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%).
• South Korean PPI (Sep YY) 7.7% (Prev. 7.9%).

NOTABLE APAC EQUITY HEADLINES

• South Korea triggers a KOSPI sidecar as KOSPI 200 futures jump 5%, suspending programme trading for five minutes.
• China's September smartphone shipments fell 22.9% Y/Y, according to CAICT.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• White House envoy Witkoff will meet Russian President Putin in St. Petersburg on Wednesday to present an updated Ukraine peace proposal following talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky, Axios reported.
• Elon Musk reportedly ordered a slowdown of Ukraine's military-grade Starlink service, while Musk and Trump discussed the decision in a subsequent call, WSJ reported.
• US President Trump said Ukraine has to want to settle this war; want Zelensky to make a deal; given a lot to Ukraine, but gotten absolutely nothing back.
• US to offer Russian President Putin face-to-face talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump, Politico reported.
• The Trump administration is closing in on a deal with Russia that would see multiple Americans released from detention in Russia, according to ABC, citing sources.

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli PM Netanyahu is pushing to resume major strikes on Iran, but a planned October 10th offensive was halted amid Trump's opposition ahead of the US midterms, FT reported.
• Iran has reportedly prepared for an all-out, multi-layered and comprehensive war against its adversaries, Press TV reported, citing a source.
• Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed four drones launched towards Saudi Arabia, according to a coalition spokesperson.
• No Qatari diplomatic delegation has travelled to Iran, contrary to earlier reports, Nour News reported, citing an informed source.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf reiterates that a permanent ceasefire with the US depends on Washington fulfilling Tehran's seven conditions, Press TV reported.
• Iran's IRGC Political Deputy said Iran will target internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz if its infrastructure is attacked, Mehr reported.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted his interview with Iraqi network, said indirect negotiations with the US are continuing through intermediary countries, including Pakistan and Qatar, despite Washington's public opposition to talks. Iran previously presented a seven-day initiative to the US, outlining its conditions and proposing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day. US agreed to Iran's seven-day proposal but sought to add several additional conditions, although he declined to disclose their details. Araghchi said the additional US conditions concern issues previously addressed during negotiations, while Iran is demanding that Washington first honour all commitments under the earlier Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. Iran is prepared to negotiate other outstanding issues once the US fulfils its existing commitments, with both sides able to raise additional matters during final negotiations towards a comprehensive agreement. Said three previous rounds of negotiations with the US ended in war against Iran, demonstrating that Washington cannot be trusted to honour agreements. Iran reached an understanding with US President Trump during the third round of negotiations, but Trump violated the agreement after adhering to its terms for only two weeks. Iran proposed the seven-day initiative to preserve diplomatic engagement, stressing that the door to negotiations remains open provided the US honours previous understandings. Araghchi said the US, rather than Iran, is obstructing diplomatic progress, and Washington must demonstrate its seriousness by implementing the conditions to which it previously committed. Said the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened if the US fulfils its commitments, after which further rounds of negotiations can take place towards a final agreement.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran has yet to receive a response from Saudi Arabia or Yemen's Houthis regarding its mediation initiative, while warning against trusting the US in negotiations. All possibilities are on the table, including a new war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran. Sanctions and the blockade have imposed major burdens on Iran. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on reaching an understanding with the US.
• No delegation from Qatar has travelled to Iran, Tasnim reported, citing an informed source.
• The Al-Shaib border crossing between Iraq and Iran has reportedly been completely closed, Al Arabiya reported, citing sources.
• US President Trump said doing very well with Iran; have to make final decision on which way to win.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said it's difficult to reach an agreement with the Iranian regime and Iran is controlled by hardliners and it's difficult to reach an agreement with them.
• Operations against Iran will eventually resume, but likely not before Israeli and US midterm elections, reported Kan News citing security sources.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said for any negotiation, first the pressures, threats, and sanctions must be lifted, Tasnim reported.
• Qatar, Russia and Pakistan trying to mediate between US and Iran, reported The Guardian; A source close to Iran's chief negotiator Ghalibaf said reports about an imminent US-Iran deal are incorrect. Iran has now assumed a state of war as certainty and has prepared for it.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said there are signs that the Iranians will initiate various actions against us in the coming days - they can also do this through their proxies, i24 reported.
• Iran Security Council Secretary said under no circumstances will a particle of enriched nuclear material leave Iran, reported Tasnim.
• Political and security sources estimate that the chance of direct escalation with Iran before the elections is low, but Tehran may try to influence their results by raising oil prices and other disruptions, reported Israel's Hayom.
• Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said we have nothing new to say and the US cannot gain Iran's trust unless it implements the seven conditions, Mehr reported. In a meeting with Asim Munir, Commander of the Pakistani Army, Ghalibaf, referring to Iran's deep distrust of the US and the Trump administration's violation of the Islamabad MoU, emphasised that the US can only gain Iran's trust by implementing Iran's seven conditions presented in New York. He also stated that Iran is not war-mongering, but is fully prepared to defend its homeland and national dignity, and emphasised that threats and military movements cannot change the strategic decisions of the Islamic Republic, and it is America that must take action to get out of the quagmire of war.
• The Commander of the Pakistani Army met with Iranian President Pezeshkian and discussed bilateral relations, regional developments, and mediation initiatives, Nour News reported.
• IRGC Navy's observation and monitoring of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the southern coastline of the country is being carried out vigorously from four sources, and the scope of the monitoring field has also increased, Fars reported, citing sources.

OTHERS

• US War Secretary Hegseth said we haven't changed our posture in any way with the Ukrainians.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM Burnham plans to introduce legislation as soon as April to cut benefits bill, Telegraph reported.

This is the daily European opening wrap rather than a single event, so the note speaks to the session's dominant threads. The clearest is the Hormuz risk premium in crude: threats against shipping and cables in the strait, coupled with a large private inventory draw, follow the established pattern in which geopolitical spikes fade unless physical flows are actually interrupted, and the reported tanker incident is the kind of tangible disruption that has historically kept the bid in place and fed freight and insurance costs. The second thread is hawkish central bank repricing across the G10, with a major house shifting to an RBA hike call after hawkish official commentary, BoJ speakers flagging upside inflation risk, and BoE's Greene leaning against second-round effects, a combination that has tended to pressure the front end of those curves and support the respective currencies more than the dollar. The third is the bifurcation in equities, where AI-linked names continue to drive index-level moves even as breadth rotates elsewhere, and where concerns over AI-exposed debt have been the recurring counterweight, a theme visible in the prior session's bull-flattening. In Europe, the OAT-Bund spread widening to a multi-year extreme ahead of a rating review is the tell for French political risk, and wider spreads into reviews have in past episodes invited verbal pushback from officials rather than immediate policy response. The session's calendar, UK CPI alongside Bailey, Lagarde and Cipollone appearances, US supply, and a heavy earnings slate, gives the natural follow-ons.