Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 25th September 2026

• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran presented a proposal to the US through mediators this week to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations towards a final deal.
• Chinese President Xi urged the US and Iran to return to resolving issues through negotiation as soon as possible, according to Xinhua.
• Chinese President Xi said China and the US reached a common understanding on many issues.
• Crude futures pulled back overnight after the prior day's advances, with the reversal seen following reports that the US and Iran discussed a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed following the inconclusive handover from the US; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct), US Durable Goods Orders (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include Fed's Williams, Hammack & Schmid, ECB's Vujcic, BoE Governor Bailey. Credit ratings, including Moody's on the EU & Italy, and Scope Ratings on the EU.

SNAPSHOT

STOCKS
Nikkei 225	+1.3%	ASX 200	-0.6%
Hang Seng	-1.7%	Shanghai Comp	Closed
Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26	+0.6%	DAX Dec'26	+0.6%
ES Dec'26	-0.1%	NQ Dec'26	+0.1%

FX
DXY	U/C (101.23)	EUR/USD	-0.1% (1.1374)
USD/JPY	-0.4% (158.18)	GBP/USD	U/C (1.3217)

BONDS
US T-Note Dec'26	-3 ticks	Bund Dec'26	+17 ticks
US 10yr Yield	5.18%	German 10yr Yield	3.60%

ENERGY & METALS
WTI Nov'26	-1.6%	Brent Dec'26	-1.3%
Spot Gold	-0.3%	LME Copper	U/C

CRYPTO
Bitcoin	-0.2%	Ethereum	-0.2%

As of 06:15BST/01:15EDT

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include German GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct), US Durable Goods Orders (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include Fed's Williams, Hammack & Schmid, ECB's Vujcic, BoE Governor Bailey. Credit ratings, including Moody's on the EU & Italy, and Scope Ratings on the EU.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

IRAN CONFLICT

• US and Iran reportedly discussed a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the US blockade, according to Reuters citing sources, while a senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining access to frozen assets. Furthermore, the report noted that President Trump remains open to dialogue with Iran but is not in urgent need of negotiations.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran presented a proposal to the US through mediators this week to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations towards a final deal, while the proposal called for the US to meet certain conditions within 7 days, according to CNN.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi held separate meetings with counterparts from Spain, Poland and Jordan in New York and said that Europe must confront US aggression and end Israeli impunity, according to Press TV.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said Tehran wants to revive its ceasefire memorandum of understanding with the US before the November midterm elections, and does not want talks delayed until after the vote. Pezeshkian said Iran is open to inspections of its nuclear facilities and denies that Tehran is seeking to assassinate President Trump or his family. He also stated that Iran does not want a nuclear bomb and didn't seek war, which was imposed on them, but they will defend themselves and respond decisively. Furthermore, he said they had reached an agreement with the US that was signed, and are still ready to move forward based on the same principles.
• IRGC spokesperson warned that in the event of another attack, Iran's method of defence will change, including the geography of the confrontation, type of equipment and weapons used, and targets in defensive operations in line with new conditions.
• Iranian journalist Mohammad Ghaderi said the Reuters report is false and that its goal is to control the price of oil, while he claimed there are no negotiations underway and Iran's position remains unchanged that the US must fulfil the stipulated conditions in a single step so that the Strait of Hormuz can be opened under Iranian control.
• US defence official said some 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the highest daily volume of crude since early July, while it was separately reported that preliminary ship tracking data showed Strait of Hormuz's commodity vessel crossings dropped to a single digit.
• US Senate rejected a resolution curbing Trump's Iran war powers.
• Israeli senior official said the chance of an agreement between the US and Iran is 'small' but not impossible, while a US source said they are not sure that the IRGC would want to give Trump a "victory" before the midterm elections.
• Pakistan's Defence Minister said intensive efforts are underway to establish a mechanism for ending the conflict as quickly as possible and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to Tasnim.
• Chinese President Xi urged the US and Iran to return to resolving issues through negotiation as soon as possible, according to Xinhua.
• French President Macron said France will send military means and soldiers to protect the Red Sea route.
• UK Foreign Secretary Miliband warned Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi that the UK will not tolerate hostile acts on British soil, according to Sky News.
• Saudi Foreign Ministry said Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan will hold urgent chiefs of staff meetings to discuss support for Riyadh under the joint defence pact.
• Jordan's Deputy PM and Minister of Foreign Affairs said the region will not see peace without an independent Palestinian state and noted that Israel is defeating peace chances unless the international community acts.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks ultimately finished the day relatively flat in choppy trade, in which the SPX, NDX and RUT were flat, while the DJI sold off and the RSP dropped. Sectors were predominantly lower, with Utilities, Materials and Staples lagging, while Communication Services, Health Care and Energy outperformed. The stock highlight was Oracle (ORCL), which tumbled after declaring force majeure at its New Mexico data centre, also weighing on Bloom Energy (BE) and Blue Owl (OWL), given both have exposure to the project. ORCL pared the majority of its losses but still closed lower by 3%.
• SPX -0.02% at 7,704, NDX +0.03% at 30,479, DJI -0.31% at 51,355, RUT -0.11% at 2,836.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said in the state dinner for Chinese President Xi that the US and China have never gotten along better, while he added that they can continue a prosperous and secure future with China.
• Chinese President Xi said China and the US made a common understanding on many issues and that he had a frank and in-depth exchange with US President Trump.
• US Democratic Senator Slotkin said she would try to get approval for a Chinese car ban on Thursday and believed only one Senator opposes it.
• EU urges the UK to increase tariffs on Chinese cars to avoid ‘made in Europe’ barriers, according to FT.
• European Parliament President said Germany should seek a deal with the Trump administration to resolve their trade dispute around drug pricing, according to Politico.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump, House Speaker Johnson and tech CEOs are to meet regarding AI on September 29th, according to Axios.
• White House asked OpenAI and Anthropic not to share their new AI models with the UK testing agency until the models have gone through testing with the US government first, according to a Politico reporter.
• US Treasury Buyback (Liquidity support, 20-30-year nominal coupons, max USD 6bln): Accepted USD 4.08bln of USD 10.47bln offers and 12 of 35 eligible securities.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed following the inconclusive handover from the US, where the major indices finished flat after the bond rout deepened, while conditions were thinned in the region owing to the holiday closures in South Korea, Taiwan and Mainland China.
• ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in tech and with nearly all sectors in the red aside from financials and consumer staples, while price action was not helped by the lack of catalysts and data releases.
• Nikkei 225 extended on recent momentum and rose above 66,000, while the index was unfazed and Japanese banks were underpinned by a higher yield environment, which saw the 30yr yield at its highest since its debut in 1999.
• Hang Seng suffered despite the pleasantries at the Trump-Xi summit and state dinner, as the meeting of the leaders failed to result in any major breakthroughs, while there were losses in nearly all but a handful of the Hong Kong benchmark's constituents and the Stock Connect was shut due to the closure in the mainland for the Mid-Autumn Festival.
• US equity futures were uneventful following the indecisive performance stateside.
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Thursday.

FX

• DXY took a breather after notching four consecutive days of gains alongside continued inflation concerns and following the recent advances in US yields and oil prices, with money markets now fully pricing in three rate hikes over the next year.
• EUR/USD traded relatively sideways after the prior day's failed attempt to reclaim the 1.1400 handle, while the latest ECB headlines and rhetoric did little to influence price action.
• GBP/USD lingered firmly beneath the 1.3300 handle following this week's slide, while the data calendar remains light for the UK, although BoE Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak later.
• USD/JPY mildly pulled back following comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who stated that US President Trump voiced concerns about yen weakness, while she reiterated Japan will closely coordinate with the US on foreign exchange.
• Antipodeans lacked direction amid the mixed risk appetite and absence of any pertinent data.
• Mexican Interest Rate Decision 6.50% vs. Exp. 6.50% (Prev. 6.50%), with the decision unanimous. Banxico stated the Governing Board will make its decisions considering the ongoing disinflation process and expected behaviour of its determinants, including exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, slack conditions and inflation expectations. (prev. Governing Board estimates that it will be appropriate to maintain the reference rate at its current level).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures remained lacklustre after retreating yesterday as the bond rout deepened with the US 10yr yield rising to its highest since 2007 at around the 5.20% level following the recent gains in oil, a weak auction, an underwhelming buyback operation, hawkish Fed speak and with money markets fully pricing in three Fed rate hikes over the next year.
• Bund futures attempted to nurse some of the losses seen from the global bond sell-off, with a pullback in oil helping ease some inflationary pressures, but with the rebound contained and participants look ahead to GfK Consumer Confidence.
• 10yr JGB futures followed suit to the recent declines in global counterparts, with Japan's 30yr yield climbing to the highest level since its debut in 1999, with price action not helped by a quiet calendar and weaker demand at the enhanced-liquidity auction for long- to super-long JGBs.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures pulled back overnight after the prior day's advances, with the reversal seen following reports that the US and Iran discussed a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the US blockade, while CNN also reported that Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran presented a proposal to the US through mediators this week to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations towards a final deal, while the proposal called for the US to meet certain conditions within 7 days.
• US Energy Secretary Wright contacted executives at several major US refiners to gauge support for voluntarily restricting diesel exports, according to Reuters citing three people familiar with the discussions.
• UK PM Burnham is under growing pressure to push the Trump administration to scrap plans to restrict diesel exports, while the PM did not raise the issue with Trump when they had their meeting on Tuesday in New York.
• Spot gold was indecisive after recent sideways trade and as the dollar held onto prior spoils.
• Copper futures were subdued amid the mixed risk appetite and absence of its largest buyer.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin marginally declined but remained above the USD 84,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese President Xi called on China and the US to keep AI technology under human control, while he said that they are major AI powers and can cooperate, according to Xinhua.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said specific monetary policy tools are up to the BoJ to decide and that the central bank will conduct appropriate monetary policy while coordinating with the government. Katayama also stated that US President Trump voiced concerns about yen weakness at the summit and that PM Takaichi expressed concern about the yen’s weakness in general, while she reiterated that Japan will closely coordinate with the US on foreign exchange.
• Japanese Economic Minister Kiuchi said they are not in an era to do monetary easing, as well as stated that the phase of monetary easing and agile fiscal spending has ended.
• New Zealand's Finance Minister named Rebecca Williams to the RBNZ MPC.

DATA RECAP

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US envoys Witkoff and Kushner met with Russia's Dmitriev on Thursday, according to CNN.
• French President Macron said France could face attacks similar to the failed Leipzig attack, adding that Russia is multiplying hostile and criminal acts against European nations. All sensitive sites in France are subject to additional protection.

OTHER

• Chinese President Xi said North Korea, the Middle East and Ukraine were discussed with US President Trump, while they agreed to build a stable China-US relationship.
• US President Trump's administration has been quietly holding talks with China about its rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal amid doubts over Beijing's compliance with a 30-year test ban, according to US officials cited by WSJ.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Dutch PM said many countries in the region would find Klaas Knot to be an ideal candidate for ECB President.

DATA RECAP

• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep) -13 vs. Exp. -16 (Prev. -14)