Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 29th September 2026

• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran discussed proposals with Qatari mediators to present to the US, and that a response is to be relayed to Tehran through Qatari mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister said they expect a US response today.
• **Iran was reported to have agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, although the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson later denied these reports. **
• US President Trump denied reports that he is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue.
• The RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 4.60%, as expected, and noted it will raise the cash rate further if needed; Press conference at 06:30 BST.
• Crude futures edged higher overnight; APAC stocks were mostly subdued; European equity futures indicate a flat/positive cash market open.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Inflation (Sep) & Retail Sales (Aug), EZ Economic Sentiment (Sep), US JOLTS (Aug). Speakers include RBA's Bullock, ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde, Vujcic & Lane, Fed’s Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr & Waller, BoC’s Gravelle, BoE's Taylor & Mann. Supply from the UK & Italy. Earnings from Micron.

SNAPSHOT

STOCKS
Nikkei 225	-1.4%	ASX 200	-0.1%
Hang Seng	-0.9%	Shanghai Comp	U/C
Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26	+0.1%	DAX Dec'26	U/C
ES Dec'26	-0.3%	NQ Dec'26	-0.5%

FX
DXY	+0.1% (101.23)	EUR/USD	-0.1% (1.1360)
USD/JPY	+0.1% (157.49)	GBP/USD	-0.1% (1.3237)

BONDS
US T-Note Dec'26	-5 ticks	Bund Dec'26	+6 ticks
US 10yr Yield	5.26%	German 10yr Yield	3.63%

ENERGY & METALS
WTI Nov'26	+1.8%	Brent Dec'26	+2.0%
Spot Gold	+0.3%	LME Copper	-0.3%

CRYPTO
Bitcoin	-0.3%	Ethereum	-0.8%

As of 06:15BST/01:15EDT

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Spanish Inflation (Sep) & Retail Sales (Aug), EZ Economic Sentiment (Sep), US JOLTS (Aug). Speakers include RBA's Bullock, ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde, Vujcic & Lane, Fed’s Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr & Waller, BoC’s Gravelle, BoE's Taylor & Mann. Supply from UK & Italy. Earnings from Micron.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

IRAN CONFLICT

• US President Trump said they will win the Iran war very soon and gas prices will come tumbling down, while he added that inflation will be eradicated after the war with Iran ends and stated that US officials spoke with Iran mediators on Monday.
• US President Trump posted "Axios just released a story that “Trump” offered Sanctions Relief and Frozen Funds to Iran. This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING! Axios’ story, like most others, is a HOAX, used only for purposes of satisfying their Trump Derangement Syndrome. They should withdraw this fake story, IMMEDIATELY!"
• US official said Washington was continuing positive discussions with Iran through intermediaries, and there will be no agreement without addressing the nuclear issue, while it was also reported that a US official said President Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue, according to Al Jazeera.
• US Secretary of State Rubio told Fox News Iran had threatened to attack US interests around the world and they are taking those threats very seriously, while he warned there will be repercussions if American interests are attacked. Rubio also stated that what happened in Britain over the weekend was a very serious threat and that Iran was seeking to acquire huge numbers of drones, missiles and conventional weapons. Furthermore, he said Iran wanted to use its arsenal to threaten the region and US forces, and then move towards acquiring a nuclear weapon.
• US Secretary of State Rubio told Lebanon's PM that the US supports a sovereign Lebanese state free from the harmful influence of Hezbollah and Iran, while he added that a tripartite framework is the only way to achieve lasting peace between Lebanon and Israel.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will continue to degrade the Iranian regime’s ability to fund terrorism and develop a nuclear weapon. In relevant news, Bessent met with Lebanon's PM and urged Lebanon to disrupt Iran and Hezbollah networks.
• Iranian Foreign Minister said they expect a US response today to the proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran discussed proposals with Qatari mediators to present to the US, and that a response is to be relayed to Tehran through Qatari mediators, while he added that conditions set by Supreme Leader must be met to reopen Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran has offered a solution if the US wants a deal or peace. Araghchi said he will fly to Tehran on Monday evening, and noted that communications and messages exchanged by Qatari and Pakistani mediators have always been, but now they have taken a more serious form, due to the plan presented by Iran.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran's positions have not changed at all and conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz are clear, while he added their position on other matters is also clear and that the only current issue is the Strait of Hormuz, with the reopening of the strait contingent on fulfilling the conditions that they have announced to the other side.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said media reports about the content of consultations with the Qatari mediator are baseless speculation, while he added that such accounts have no basis in reality and that no discussion of the details of the issues took place.
• Iranian Supreme Leader's senior adviser warned that if Iran is attacked by the US again, the confrontation will expand to new fronts, according to Press TV.
• Iranian MP Ebrahim Rezaei said no negotiations will begin until the US fulfils commitments in the Islamabad MoU, while he stated that Iranian diplomats lack permission for bilateral or trilateral talks in the current situation and that the US failed to release blocked funds after the Islamabad deal.
• Iran Deputy Speaker of Parliament said Iran's Parliament is reviewing the three-point plan to withdraw from the NPT, according to Fars News Agency.
• Iran was reported to have agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions and mediators were pressuring Iran to make nuclear concessions.
• Iranian official said reports published by some news outlets about Iran showing flexibility over its nuclear position are false, according to Press TV. Furthermore, it was stated that Iran’s position on the nuclear issue remains unchanged, while the official stressed that no discussions are taking place on the matter, and stated that the US government is “stuck” in the Strait of Hormuz and is raising the nuclear issue to deflect attention from the problem.
• Iranian officials are reportedly pessimistic about reaching a deal with the US before the midterm elections, while talks in New York made limited progress, with nuclear concessions and reopening Hormuz remaining key sticking points.
• Iranian source told Amwaj Media that whilst some reports alleged that mediators in a last-ditch effort have suggested that Tehran frontload nuclear-related concessions to get buy-in from Trump, no such proposal has been made, while a second source said in the absence of any discernible progress, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi is likely to imminently depart from New York.
• Talks continuing between the US and Iran through intermediaries are positive and constructive, according to Sky News Arabia citing US media, although there will be no agreement unless the issues related to the nuclear file are addressed. Furthermore, Iran was said to have shown flexibility on nuclear issues, but the sides still differ on the timing of commitments and steps, while the US doubts Iran's commitments after it violated the MoU by firing on commercial ships. It was also reported by Jerusalem Post that the chance of a breakthrough in negotiations between the US and Iran is "not great".
• US source involved in negotiations with Iran said chances of an agreement are extremely slim, while gaps are wide and obstacles are significant.
• An explosion was heard in Iran's Qeshm Island, which originated from the sea.
• Saudi Foreign Minister discussed with US Secretary of State Rubio the situation in Yemen and efforts being made regarding it, while they also discussed political developments and the importance of protecting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks declined with all major indices in the red and the Nasdaq the underperformer, while the sectors were predominantly lower, led by Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary and Financials, while Staples, Health Care and Energy were the only sectors to finish with gains. Treasuries sold off across the curve, with yields rising around 7-9bps amid choppy US-Iran headlines. Yields pared from highs alongside crude as reports suggested potential progress towards sanctions relief and a nuclear agreement, although subsequent reports said the chances of a deal remain extremely slim, while Press TV cited an official who noted that reports of Iranian flexibility on the nuclear issue are false.
• SPX -0.76% at 7,685, NDX -1.08% at 30,277, DJI -0.67% at 51,482, RUT -0.63% at 2,820.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US import ban on a range of Canadian products, including alcoholic beverages, dairy ingredients and some motorcycles, took effect from midnight as scheduled.
• US President Trump said he had a very respectful meeting with Chinese President Xi and would rate it a 12 on a scale of 0-10, while he said that an arms sale to China was not discussed.
• US President Trump said Canada wants a deal and they call the US all the time, while he thinks that a deal will be made.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Cook (voter) expects to see continued inflation pressure in coming months from AI and the Middle East conflict, while she added that the labour market is well positioned to handle an increase in rates and noted signs of broadening pressure in inflation data. Cook added that gains will not come in time to offset broadening inflation this year, and she is highly attentive to a scenario in which AI leads to at least a temporary rise in unemployment.
• Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said he would not say AI is immune to rate pressure, while adding that low unemployment is a key factor for consumption.
• White House Economic Adviser Hassett estimates productivity growth right now at 2.5%, while the base case on GDP growth should be around 4%.
• OpenAI is scrapping the release of a new AI model dubbed GPT-6.1 Astra due to safety concerns, according to WSJ.
• US Democrat Rep. Khanna is to introduce a bill to regulate artificial intelligence, which includes a ban on recursive technology according to CNBC.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the weak handover from Wall Street, where the major indices were pressured as oil prices and yields continued to climb, amid a slew of conflicting geopolitical headlines.
• ASX 200 traded rangebound with the index kept afloat for most of the session amid outperformance in the local tech, mining and materials industries, but with the upside limited after disappointing Household Spending and with mild pressure seen after the RBA hiked rates as expected and stuck to the hawkish script.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed and tested the 65,000 level to the downside, with the declines led by weakness in refiner and power-related stocks.
• KOSPI was choppy with the index ultimately dragged lower by the tech giants amid recent upside in yields, while South Korea's Finance Minister noted they are closely monitoring the bond market and will conduct a treasury bond buyback if bond yields rise excessively.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with Hong Kong pressured amid weakness in some autonames and as fast fashion retailer Shein slumped after it reported its H1 oper. profit fell by over 50% Y/Y, while the mainland was resilient after the PBoC and government agencies issued guidance to expand capacity and improve the quality of China’s service sector through financial support, and China also asked local governments to pilot high-quality policies to boost consumption.
• US equity futures trickled lower overnight amid the current backdrop of rising yields and higher oil prices.
• European equity futures indicate a flat/positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed flat on Monday.

FX

• DXY eked out slight gains after ultimately strengthening yesterday in choppy trade alongside higher US yields and a slew of conflicting geopolitical headlines, while there were also some Fed comments, including from Cook, who expects to see continued inflation pressure in the coming months from AI and the Middle East conflict, while she also noted signs of broadening pressure in inflation data.
• EUR/USD was contained after marginally softening on Monday, with some headwinds amid comments from ECB's Lagarde that she views a measured response as appropriate to keep inflation in check and that they remain in the middle path for monetary policy that was laid out earlier this year, while more ECB speakers are scheduled today.
• GBP/USD lacked demand following its recent indecisive mood amid several BoE comments and reports that UK PM Burnham is expected to edge Labour closer to rejoining the EU and will signal the end of the pensions triple lock in his conference speech today.
• USD/JPY conformed to the humdrum mood across the FX space amid a lack of tier-1 data from Japan and despite jawboning from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who stated that they exchanged views on FX trends with US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Friday and agreed to bolster cooperation, while she also stated that they believe the undervalued yen, in general, is problematic.
• Antipodeans struggled for direction with AUD/USD constrained after weaker-than-expected Household Spending data, while there was brief support after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 4.60%, as expected, and noted it will raise the cash rate further if needed.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7411 vs Exp. 6.7177 (prev. 6.7399).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures remained subdued after the recent upside in yields across the curve amid higher oil prices and a slew of conflicting geopolitical reports ahead of key US data this week.
• Bund futures kept afloat after yesterday's intraday rebound, but with upside capped amid inflationary-related headwinds.
• 10yr JGB futures edged higher after recently bouncing off a contract low at the 124.00 level, but then stalled amid a quiet calendar with no tier-1 releases from Japan and after a mixed 40-year JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures edged higher following yesterday's ultimately positive but choppy performance amid conflicting geopolitical headlines, as reports noted that Iran was said to have shown flexibility on nuclear issues and that President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release Iranian frozen funds in return for concrete Iranian steps regarding the nuclear program. However, these reports were later denied, with an Iranian official stating the reports about Iran showing flexibility over its nuclear position are false, while President Trump also posted that the story he offered sanctions relief and frozen funds to Iran is untrue and that he offered them nothing.
• Saudi Arabia started loading crude oil on Sunday from the Red Sea port of Yanbu after it completed partial repairs and tests on the East-West pipeline.
• Syria said the gas pipeline fire between Al-Shola and Deir al-Zour was caused by sabotage and had halted gas supply from Jbeissa plant to power stations. Furthermore, the Syrian Oil Company said the gas pipeline fire south of Deir ez-Zor was still ongoing and efforts to contain it had failed so far.
• UK government is said to be privately lobbying the Trump administration for an exemption should the US impose any diesel export ban, according to sources.
• European Energy Commissioner wrote to 27 member states ahead of the meeting, inviting them to consider taking or continuing to take measures that can reduce gas and electricity demand for as long as necessary, while the informal talks are not expected to result in major decisions, but will help coordinate action among the bloc's nations, according to AFP.
• Spot gold attempted to nurse some of its recent losses after slumping alongside higher yields.
• Copper futures were stuck near yesterday's trough amid the mostly negative risk sentiment.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was mildly pressured and tested the USD 83,000 level to the downside.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.60%, as expected with the decision unanimous. RBA stated inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks in August are materialising, while the Board will continue to take whatever action it considers necessary to return inflation sustainably to target, including raising the cash rate target further if required. RBA stated the conflict in the Middle East has widened and global energy prices are now significantly higher than assumed in the August forecast, with recent inflation outcomes in Australia stronger than anticipated at the prior meeting. Furthermore, it stated that the three increases in the cash rate target since the start of the year have tightened financial conditions and the economy appears to be losing momentum, but added that inflation remains too high and the Board judged that, given recent developments, further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support a return of inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe.
• China asked local governments to pilot high-quality policies to boost consumption.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they exchanged views on FX trends with US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Friday and agreed to bolster cooperation, while she added that they believe the undervalued yen is problematic in general, and will continue close communications with the US Treasury to ensure orderly forex markets.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Household Spending (Aug MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.1%)
• Australian Household Spending (Aug YY) 6.8% vs Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 7.0%)

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russia targeted Kyiv with a wave of ballistic missiles and several explosions reportedly shook Ukraine's capital, according to an FT reporter.
• Russian President Putin reportedly ordered an increase in the size of the Russian army.
• US President Trump's envoys are touting “real progress” after holding talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, including negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict, according to the NY Post.

OTHER

• US Secretary of State Rubio urged Cuba to choose a different path and said the US will not tolerate threats to national security, according to an interview on Fox News.
• North Korea said US approval for South Korea's nuclear submarine increases regional instability.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM Burnham is expected to edge Labour closer to rejoining the EU as he prepares to address the Labour Party conference for the first time as prime minister, while ministers have stated it is now a question of how much he emphasises the UK’s return to Europe, rather than if, according to The Independent.
• UK PM Burnham will signal the end of the pensions triple lock in his conference speech today, according to The Telegraph.
• UK PM Burnham has been warned by one of Britain’s largest unions that scrapping the triple lock on state pensions to help fund free social care for the elderly would be “electoral suicide” amid growing cabinet splits, according to The Times.
• ECB's Pereira said natgas price pressures could lift inflation this winter, with inflation pressures currently concentrated in energy prices.

DATA RECAP

• UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (Sep) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.5%)