Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News - NVDA faces shareholder suit over CEO affair; Anthropic targets $1tln IPO valuation

DAY AHEAD:

• CENTRAL BANKS: Today’s speakers’ slate is busy, with Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) joining a fireside chat, and Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) speaking on the outlook. From the BoE, chief economist Pill speaks. From the ECB, chief economist Lane speaks. BoC minutes are released.
• SUPPLY: US auctions USD 42bln of 10yr notes.
• ENERGY: EIA publishes its short-term energy outlook.
• EARNINGS: Notable corporate earnings due today include: CoreWeave (CRWV).

ES -0.5% NQ -1% RTY -0.8%

• NVDA -1.8%: CEO's affair with alleged Chinese spy facilitated the sale of at least $7.5bln in chips to China
• Anthropic targets a modest $1tln market value in its IPO
• LRCX -2.9% MU -2.8% NVDA -1.8%: Have been removed from the US 1 list at BofA
• TTWO +3.3%: Narrower-than-exp. Q loss & unprecedented pre-orders for GTA VI
• LCID -5.3%: Deeper loss per shr. than exp. & rev. light
• RKLB -9%: Profit light & sees larger-than-exp. next Q adj. EBITDA loss
• HIMS -1%: Surprise Q loss, rev. missed & downgraded FY guidance

• Nvidia (NVDA) - Faces a shareholder lawsuit alleging CEO Huang’s failure to disclose an affair with a suspected Chinese spy artificially inflated its share price and concealed national security risks, Politico reports. The complaint also raises concerns over Nvidia’s oversight of AI chip destinations and potential circumvention of US export controls. Moreover, The Information reports citing sources that the CEO's relationship with Alice Huang dated back to at least 2023 and facilitated the sale of at least USD 7.5bln in Nvidia chips to China.
• Anthropic (ANT) - Expects IPO price of USD 70-78/shr; to sell 801.35mln IPO shares, with the Co. seeking to raise USD 64.4bln. To price on November 18th, and trade on November 19th. Key Metrics: Discloses ARR at USD 81bln as of October 31st. This is up USD 10bln from September 30, 2026. Revenue grew from USD 4.6bln in 2025 to USD 33.2bln for the first nine months of 2026. Net revenue retention was about 900%. Expects net proceeds of USD 93.7bln if its IPO is priced at USD 74/shr (midpoint of the range), inclusive of the overallotment (greenshoe) and private placement. Investment: Committed spend at USD 900bln. Committed expenditures include USD 451.6bln to be incurred by December 31, 2030. AMD, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, Nvidia and TSMC have agreed to buy USD 26bln of non-voting Class N stock at the IPO price. Google and Nvidia are each putting in about USD 10bln and AMD about USD 2.5bln. IPO Details: Targets about USD 1tln market value in the Nasdaq IPO. IPO targets USD 1.4tln fully‑diluted valuation.
• TSMC (TSM) - October revenue surged 60% Y/Y to TWD 586.9bln, Bloomberg reports. Growth accelerated from approximately 51% in Q3, supported by resilient AI chip demand from customers including Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL). Analysts expect 63% revenue growth in Q4.
• Moonshot, Super Micro (SMCI), Nvidia (NVDA) - Moonshot AI reportedly contracted to rent 32 Super Micro servers equipped with Nvidia B300 chips in China, valued at CNY 432mln, Bloomberg reports, citing regulatory filings. The arrangement raises concerns over potential US export control violations, although licensing remains unconfirmed. Moonshot disputes the filings, while Nvidia and Super Micro deny business relationships with the entities involved.
• Lyft (LYFT) - The DoJ sued Lyft for allegedly discriminating against disabled passengers, including wheelchair users and those with service animals, Reuters reports. The lawsuit seeks USD 53mln in compensation and changes to company policies and driver training. Lyft disputes the allegations, citing existing accessibility requirements. The DoJ filed a similar USD 125mln lawsuit against Uber last year.
• Lam Research (LRCX), Micron (MU), Nvidia (NVDA) - Have been removed from the US 1 list at BofA.
• Microsoft (MSFT) - Has called for the US administration to halt FCC plans to stop imports of new models of optical transceivers from China, Reuters reports citing sources.
• Sanmina (SANM) Q4 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.43 (exp. 3.27), Revenue 3.86bln (exp. 3.48bln). CEO highlighted broad-based growth across all end markets, successful integration of ZT Systems, strengthening its position in Cloud and AI Infrastructure, and double-digit Y/Y growth in the core Sanmina business. Management expects demand to remain strong in FY27. Guidance: Q1 adj. EPS 3.50-3.85 (exp. 2.95), Revenue 3.8-4.1bln (exp. 3.55bln). FY27 adj. EPS 15.50-17.50 (exp. 14.08), Revenue 17.5-19.5bln (exp. 16.7bln).
• Infineon Technologies (IFNNY) Q4 2026 (EUR): Adj. EPS 0.60 (vs 0.34 Y/Y), Revenue 4.71bln (exp. 4.71bln). Gross margin improved to 41.8% (vs 40.8% Y/Y), while FY26 revenue reached 16.35bln (exp. 16.35bln), Adj. gross margin 43.1%. Proposes increasing the annual dividend by EUR 0.03 to EUR 0.38/shr. Commentary: CEO highlighted record quarterly performance, ongoing cyclical recovery and strong demand for data centre power supplies, energy infrastructure and electromobility, with robotics and edge AI presenting additional opportunities. Guidance: Q1 revenue 4.60bln (exp. 4.65bln). FY27 revenue 20bln (exp. 19.8bln), Adj. gross margin in the mid-to-high 40% range, Capex 3.0-3.5bln. Raises FY27 data centre revenue outlook to 4.0bln, encompassing AI and traditional data centre applications, from a previous forecast of EUR 2.5bln for AI data centre power solutions alone.
• SoftBank (SFTBY) - Q2 net loss JPY 1.12tln (exp. profit of 129bln), H1 revenue JPY 4.24tln (vs 3.7tln Y/Y). H1 net loss JPY 768bln (vs profit of 2.9tln Y/Y), marking the company’s first quarterly net loss in almost two years. Losses were driven by declining valuations of key technology holdings, including Arm (ARM), Intel (INTC) and Coupang (CPNG), amid concerns over AI investment spending and demand. Vision Fund recorded a loss of JPY 81.6bln. The company held a 13% stake in OpenAI at the beginning of October, increasing its exposure to developments in the AI sector.
• Oracle (ORCL) - Launches Oracle Financial Services Data Intelligence, Treasury Analytics and Customer Analytics suite.

• Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) - Shares rose 4.6% in extended trading after a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss and unprecedented pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI boosted confidence in its upcoming launch, overshadowing weaker-than-expected revenue and FY guidance. Q2 2027 (USD): Revenue 1.50bln (exp. 1.61bln), Net loss 54mln (vs loss of 133.9mln Y/Y). Net bookings 1.60bln (exp. 1.66bln), -18% Y/Y, while recurrent consumer spending -5% Y/Y, accounting for 81% of revenue. Commentary: CEO said Grand Theft Auto VI pre-orders have reached unprecedented levels ahead of its 19th November launch, with the Co. expecting a historic year. Guidance: Q3 EPS 1.30-1.44 (exp. 1.50), Revenue 3.27-3.42bln (exp. 3.42bln), Net bookings 3.35-3.50bln (exp. 3.40bln). Raises FY27 revenue to 7.98-8.18bln (exp. 8.62bln), EPS 0.57-0.75 (exp. 1.66). Reiterates FY27 net bookings guidance 8.0-8.2bln (exp. 8.56bln), supported by the anticipated GTA VI launch and continued expansion opportunities.
• Skydance (SKYD) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.45, Revenue 7.03bln (exp. 7.02bln). Paramount+ subscribers reached 82.2mln; FCF 31mln, including USD 174mln of restructuring and transaction costs. Completed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition on 6th October, with post-closing gross debt of USD 87bln and cash of approximately USD 10bln. Outlined plans to achieve at least USD 6bln in annual run-rate cost savings within three years following its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, including USD 2.2bln from eliminating overlapping corporate functions, management layers and office space, USD 1.4bln from consolidating streaming and broadcast operations and technology, USD 1.4bln from optimising third-party spending and procurement, and USD 1bln from reducing marketing and promotional expenditure. Expects Q4 Studios profit impact of up to USD 200mln from Warner Bros. film underperformance. Standalone FY26 profitability remains on track to reach the upper end of previous guidance at USD 3.9bln. Sees FY27 pro forma adj. EBITDA increasing Y/Y, with free cash flow exceeding USD 10bln by 2030. Plans HBO Max and Paramount+ bundle launch in early 2027 and will discontinue quarterly subscriber disclosures from Q4 results, when it will also provide FY27 guidance.
• Trade Desk (TTD) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.25), Revenue 736mln (exp. 651.4mln). CEO Jeff Green said results exceeded internal expectations but acknowledged that the Co. continues to operate below its targeted growth trajectory. Highlighted efforts to strengthen relationships with major customers, enhance its advertising platform through Zuma, Audience Unlimited and agentic AI, and introduce new measurement capabilities to help advertisers assess business outcomes. Management expects these initiatives to support stronger, more sustainable long-term growth. Guidance: Q4 revenue at least 755mln (exp. 691.6mln), Adj. EBITDA at least 280mln.
• Comcast (CMCSA) - Plans to cut more than 1K jobs across its connectivity and platforms divisions amid a major restructuring, Bloomberg reports. Co. plans over 1.1K new positions and expects a Q4 restructuring charge exceeding USD 1bln.
• Vodafone (VOD) H1 26 (GBP): Revenue 21.9bln (exp. 21.5bln), Adj. EBITDAaL 6.5bln (prev. 5.7bln); raised FY27 adj. EBITDAaL to 13.2-13.4bln (prev. 13.0-13.3bln), Adj. FCF 2.8-3bln (prev. 2.6-2.9bln). It added that Germany remains a concern despite strong overall performance.
• BT (BT/A LN), SpaceX (SPCX) - BT has reportedly delayed launching its partnership with SpaceX’s (SPCX) Starlink following controversy over signal failures in Ukraine, FT reports; CEO expressed concerns about investor and public perceptions of the tie-up but indicated BT remains keen to proceed once the controversy subsides.
• Google (GOOGL) - Google Cloud introduces Gemini for Healthcare.

• H&R Block (HRB) Q1 2027 (USD): Adj. EPS -1.40 (exp. -1.45), Revenue 224.34mln (exp. 212.28mln). Management remains confident in its financial outlook and underlying assumptions. Guidance: FY27 adj. EPS 6.04-6.24 (exp. 6.14), Revenue 4.11-4.16bln (exp. 4.13bln), Adj. EBITDA 1.11-1.14bln.
• Lucid Group (LCID) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS -2.30 (exp. -2.21), Revenue 350.3mln (exp. 399.14mln). CEO Silvio Napoli highlighted early progress in the Co.'s transformation, with efforts focused on strengthening operational fundamentals, improving financial discipline and prioritising investments to support sustainable long-term profitable growth. Management emphasised continued financial support from its anchor shareholder, alongside a commitment to improving execution and meeting operational targets.
• Honda Motor (HMC) - Q2 operating profit JPY 118bln (exp. 265bln). It reported record H1 motorcycle sales, supported by increased volumes in India and Brazil, while strong demand for fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles boosted North American performance. The automotive business continues to face challenges in China, where August sales declined 53% Y/Y amid competition from domestic EV manufacturers. Management highlighted ongoing pressure from EV-related restructuring costs, following a JPY 2.5tln write-down, although FY27 operating profit excluding EV-related losses is expected to reach JPY 1.3tln. Plans to invest USD 3bln in a new hybrid vehicle plant in Ohio, targeting annual production of 240,000 vehicles from 2029, alongside introducing 15 new hybrid models globally by March 2030. Raises FY27 operating profit guidance to JPY 780bln (exp. 839bln; prev. saw 650bln), supported by stronger hybrid demand, record motorcycle sales and favourable currency movements. Lowers FY27 vehicle sales forecast to 3.16mln units (prev. saw 3.39mln).
• Bally’s (BALY) - Announced Q3 preliminary revenue +21.7% Y/Y at USD 807.6mln (exp. 807.85mln). Bally’s Intralot B2C revenue +22% Y/Y, North America Interactive revenue +25% Y/Y, while Casinos & Resorts revenue grew by low single digits, supported by strong regional gaming performance. CEO highlighted solid adj. EBITDAR performance across segments, improving operational execution and continued progress on development projects. Management noted stable market conditions heading into Q4 and 2027, with all major development projects remaining on track.
• Autoliv (ALV) - Raised quarterly dividend 15% to USD 1.00/shr.
• Inditex (IDEXY) - Committed USD 50mln to an International Finance Corporation-led fund targeting USD 400mln to provide affordable loans for textile suppliers’ energy-efficiency and emissions-reduction projects, Bloomberg reports. The fund, open to other fashion companies, expects an initial USD 225mln close. Inditex aims to cut total emissions by 53% by 2030, versus an 11% reduction achieved by end-2025.
• ON Holding (ONON) Q3 2026 (CHF): Adj. EPS 0.54 (exp. 0.40); Revenue 931mln (exp. 928mln); affirms outlook.

• JBS (JBS) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.16 (vs 0.52 Y/Y), Revenue 22.74bln (vs 22.6bln Y/Y). Net leverage increased to 3.54x amid weaker operating performance across several business units. JBS Beef North America returned to positive adj. EBITDA, supported by improving market conditions, operational integration and industrial efficiency, while JBS Brazil faced lower exports to China following the exhaustion of its 2026 quota. CEO highlighted improving market dynamics entering Q4, with stronger Chinese demand ahead of the 2027 quota and seasonally higher domestic consumption in Brazil. Announced the acquisition of Brazilian consumer products company Flora for USD 542mln, including assumed debt, with USD 367mln in equity consideration to be paid in treasury shares or BDRs; expects the transaction to have no impact on net leverage. Also announced the acquisition of agribusiness media company Canal Rural for USD 11mln.
• General Mills (GIS) - To reorganise into three units and create a commercial function from January 1st.

• ExxonMobil (XOM) - Signed an MOU with Venezuela’s government and state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela to explore oil production opportunities, Bloomberg reports. The non-binding agreement marks progress towards re-entering Venezuela after previous asset nationalisations. Exxon stressed that future investments require stable policies, regulatory clarity and investor protections.
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.91 (exp. 1.45), Revenue 6.77bln (exp. 6.89bln), Operating cash flow from continuing operations +69% Y/Y to USD 4.13bln, while global production averaged 1.427mln barrels of oil equivalent per day. Reduced principal debt to USD 10.0bln after retiring USD 10.4bln since the beginning of 2026. CEO highlighted strong operational and financial performance, improved balance sheet strength and plans to accelerate shareholder returns; targets more than USD 4bln in additional annual sustainable cash flow by 2030. Signed long-term CO2 offtake agreements with two companies to support enhanced oil recovery operations in the Permian Basin, with projects expected to capture and transport approximately 2mln metric tonnes of CO2 annually, potentially expanding to 4mln tonnes. Initial deliveries are anticipated in 2029, subject to final investment decisions, alongside the development of nearly 100 miles of new CO2 pipeline infrastructure in the Delaware Basin.

• SpaceX (SPCX) - Targeting a 10th November Falcon 9 launch of the USSF-627 mission from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.
• AAR Corp (AIR), Airbus (EADSY) - AAR Corp signed a multi-year agreement with Airbus Avionics covering its complete portfolio of Airbus radome repairs. The agreement designates AAR as an Airbus-approved repair station in Asia-Pacific, excluding China, for radomes installed on Airbus commercial aircraft. It expands AAR’s existing Airbus repair capabilities for sharklets, elevators, rudders and slats.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS -0.12 (exp. -0.07), Revenue 267.83mln (exp. 257.18mln). Record backlog reached USD 3.57bln, including nearly USD 1bln in new launch contracts signed during Q3 and USD 470mln in Space Systems contracts. Secured more than USD 515mln in Neutron launch contracts covering eight missions across five constellation operators, with several launches priced at USD 70mln each. Additional Neutron contracts include dedicated missions for Kepler Communications and the US Space Force. CEO highlighted record quarterly revenue and backlog, citing growing demand for the company’s integrated launch, spacecraft and components capabilities. Guidance: Q4 revenue 270-290mln (exp. 264.6mln), Adj. EBITDA loss 14-20mln (exp. loss of 10.9mln), Adj. gross margin 39-41%, Adj. operating expenses 136-142mln.
• Plug Power (PLUG) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 0.00 (exp. -0.06), Revenue 200.6mln (exp. 193.33mln). Management remains focused on improving operating leverage, executing its project pipeline and delivering sustainable growth. Reiterates its target of positive EBITDAS in Q4 2026, supported by improving margins and continued cost discipline. Maintains FY26 revenue growth guidance of 15-16% Y/Y.
• TransDigm (TDG) Q4 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 12.44 (exp. 12.21), Revenue 2.99bln (exp. 2.95bln). Guidance: FY27 adj. EPS 47.09-47.94 (exp. 48.64), Revenue 11.95-12.15bln (exp. 11.77bln). CEO: "We enter fiscal 2027 with significant liquidity and the financial flexibility to pursue additional M&A and other capital deployment opportunities."

• Steel Dynamics (STLD) - Authorised an additional USD 3bln share repurchase programme, effective immediately. The new authorisation supplements its previous USD 1.5bln programme, which had USD 216mln remaining as of 30th September.
• USA Rare Earth (USAR) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.44 (exp. -0.15), Revenue 3mln (exp. 13.55mln). Completed the Serra Verde combination in September and Stage 1 of its optimisation and expansion programme, with commercial-scale shipments beginning in October and mixed rare earth carbonate sales commencing in November. Began shipments to US government-funded vehicle US SIIE under a 15-year, 100% take-or-pay offtake agreement, with payments commencing in November; the agreement establishes minimum prices of USD 110/kg for neodymium and praseodymium, USD 575/kg for dysprosium and USD 2,050/kg for terbium, alongside 70% participation in non-China market prices above these floors, less fixed separation costs. Achieved first commercial magnet sales at its Stillwater, Oklahoma facility and produced initial rare earth oxide samples in Colorado, while breaking ground on a new metals and magnets facility in South Carolina. CEO highlighted growing operational momentum across the company’s integrated rare earth supply chain.
• X-Energy (XE), Dow Inc. (DOW) - X-Energy and Dow announced US Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval of a construction permit application for four Xe-100 advanced small modular reactors at Dow’s Seadrift site in Texas.
• K+S (KPLUY) - Reported stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue (EUR 934mln vs exp. 900mln), and adj. EBITDA (EUR 108mln vs exp. 102mln), while narrowing its FY earnings guidance (sees EUR 700-750mln vs prev. guidance of 680-760mln) amid supply-side constraints.
• Ferrexpo (FEEXY) - Temporarily suspended production in Ukraine after further attacks on electricity infrastructure, including transmission lines and substations, left power supplies unstable and insufficient to sustain operations; it confirmed that its assets were undamaged, and that it can continue supplying European customers from existing inventory stockpiles.

• Citigroup (C) - CEO Fraser said its newly approved mainland China securities licence provides a competitive advantage by enabling capital raising, trading and improved investor access. The bank plans to hire approximately 100 bankers over the coming years. Fraser also described the recent AI market sell-off as somewhat excessive, citing sustained demand for computing infrastructure.
• European Insurers - European insurers are capping riot-related coverage, raising deductibles and sometimes withdrawing protection amid escalating civil unrest, Bloomberg reports. Morningstar DBRS estimates insured losses from recent French protests at below EUR 1.2bln, potentially rising if unrest continues. Howden warns tighter coverage terms are increasing policyholder exposure, while Allianz says it assesses risks individually rather than imposing blanket restrictions.

• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) - Shares fell 3.5% in extended trading after a surprise quarterly loss, weaker-than-expected revenue and downgraded FY guidance reflected margin pressure from higher costs associated with branded weight-loss drugs and international expansion, alongside slowing US revenue growth. Q3 2026 (USD): EPS -0.14 (exp. 0.06), Revenue 890.4mln (exp. 892.8mln). Subscribers +13% Y/Y to nearly 2.8mln, monthly revenue per average subscriber +30% Y/Y to USD 105. Gross margin declined to 57% (vs 74% Y/Y), reflecting a shift towards higher-cost branded weight-loss drugs and international expansion. US revenue +21% Y/Y to USD 657.1mln, while international revenue more than quadrupled to USD 233.3mln. Announced plans to launch unapproved peptide treatments, including NAD+, sermorelin and glutathione, in November, with compounded BPC-157 and TB-500 to follow, after US regulators eased restrictions. CFO expects an immaterial revenue contribution from these treatments through FY26 and highlighted menopause therapies and testosterone testing as drivers of higher revenue per subscriber. Partnerships with Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) are expected to support customer retention, although branded weight-loss drugs continue to pressure margins. Guidance: Q4 revenue 875-895mln (exp. 953.8mln), Adj. EBITDA 70-90mln (exp. 84.7mln), implying an adj. EBITDA margin of 8-10%. Lowers FY26 revenue to 3.13-3.15bln (exp. 3.21bln; prev. 3.1-3.3bln), Adj. EBITDA 257-277mln (exp. 294.6mln; prev. 275-325mln).
• Bayer (BAYRY) - US FDA approved Sunharbo (asundexian), a first-in-class Factor XIa inhibitor, for secondary stroke prevention in adults with recent non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or high-risk transient ischaemic attack.
• Roche (RHHBY) - Presented new Alzheimer’s disease data at CTAD 2026, including updated Phase Ib/IIa Brainshuttle AD trial results for trontinemab demonstrating rapid amyloid removal and changes in key biomarkers; it also outlined the Phase III PrevenTRON trial design for trontinemab in preclinical Alzheimer’s disease, with patient enrolment underway.
• Amgen (AMGN) - Announced new analyses showing Repatha (evolocumab) is highly cost-effective for high-risk cardiovascular patients, including those without prior heart attacks or strokes. A health economic analysis of the Phase 3 VESALIUS-CV trial found Repatha approximately 36% below the ACC/AHA cost-effectiveness benchmark. A separate analysis demonstrated cost-effectiveness when added to standard therapy for patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.
• Stryker Corporation (SYK) - Nominated Jim Davis, chairman, CEO and president of Quest Diagnostics (DGX), for election to its board of directors, effective 1st January 2027.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Announces Caplyta (lumateperone) shows significant and rapid improvement in bipolar mania in second pivotal Phase 3 study. Caplyta meets key secondary endpoint with greater CGI-S improvement at week 3.

• US-Iran - US President Trump and VP Vance held positive talks with Qatar’s PM Al Thani on advancing Iran negotiations. Trump said Qatar and Saudi Arabia favour a peaceful resolution, while some Gulf states prefer maintaining the US naval blockade and Operation Iron Gate. He described military action as unlikely but stressed US readiness to strike if necessary.
• US-Iran - Preparations are reportedly underway in Doha to potentially host another round of US-Iran talks next week, according to journalist Anas Mallick; Pakistan and Qatar are working as mediators. The Qatari-Pakistani proposal has increased the likelihood of a preliminary US-Iran agreement to reduce Iranian uranium enrichment, Al Hadath reports, citing sources; the proposal includes immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade. A US proposal reportedly offers to release USD 6-9bln in frozen Iranian assets if an agreement is reached.
• US-Iran - Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said there are no plans for a meeting between Supreme National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei and US Vice President Vance, according to Al Mayadeen. Araghchi stressed that resolving the conflict requires diplomacy and implementation of Iran’s stated conditions.

• China Trade - China’s October trade surplus narrowed to USD 105.28bln (exp. 125.8bln; prev. 133.53bln), while its year-to-date surplus topped USD 1tln. Exports rose 35.2% Y/Y in October (exp. 33.5%; prev. 36.3%) and imports surged 41.6% (exp. 32%; prev. 31%), driven partly by crude oil. AI-related hardware boosted exports. The EU bilateral surplus exceeded USD 310bln.
• US-Canada - Canada expanded tariff exemptions for US-made non-steel goods used in mining and energy extraction until 30th June 2028, while withdrawing relief on selected aluminium and other products to encourage domestic sourcing. Exemptions for trailers end 1st December, followed by aluminium wire, pipes, tubes and certain paperboard products on 1st February 2027.
• APEC Meeting - Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) CEO Elon Musk and Mastercard (MA) CEO Michael Miebach are expected to accompany President Trump to the Shenzhen APEC summit (18-19th November), SCMP reports. Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang’s attendance remains uncertain amid scrutiny over an alleged Chinese intelligence connection.

• Fed - Ahead of the CPI report, influential Fed Governor Waller (voter) said that a half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, though he would support a quarter-point hike even if CPI improves, adding further tightening will be needed. He called US inflation too high and September’s data bad, citing concern over breadth of price increases.
• BoJ - The BoJ’s October meeting summary indicated growing support for a December rate hike, with several policymakers urging faster normalisation after underlying inflation reached 2%. The policy rate stands at 1.25%, while markets price approximately 70% odds of a December hike; policymakers favour moving towards neutral rates.
• RBNZ - RBNZ Chief Economist Conway warned that five- and ten-year inflation expectations exceed the 2% target midpoint. Conway supported a 25bps October hike despite the bank holding rates at 2.75%, citing broader inflation risks.
• UK Retail Sales - BRC October LFL retail sales rose 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 1.2%; prev. 1.0%), while total sales increased 1.5% Y/Y (prev. 1.3%). Food sales rose 3.2%, while non-food sales were flat. Higher household costs, caution ahead of the Budget and shoppers awaiting Black Friday discounts constrained spending growth. Elsewhere, Barclays’ October consumer spending rose 2.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.0%), its strongest growth since July 2025. Essential spending increased 3.1%, driven by a 22.7% surge in fuel spending, while non-essential spending rose 1.9%. Entertainment recorded its strongest month since September 2024, although consumer confidence in the UK economy fell to its weakest since April.
• Banxico - Banxico Governor Rodriguez said the surprise 25bps rate cut to 6.25% was a one-off adjustment rather than the start of sustained easing. She expects an extended hold to support inflation returning to target, although no timeframe is fixed.

A pre-open wrap of this kind functions as a map of the session's catalysts rather than a single tradable event, and the established pattern is that one or two items come to dominate the tape while the rest fade by mid-morning. The headline pairing here is instructive: governance and export-control allegations against a widely held semiconductor name have historically mattered less for the legal claim itself, which takes years to resolve, than for whether the complaint reopens the export-circumvention narrative, since that is the channel that feeds into licensing risk and the peer set rather than the plaintiff bar. A mega-sized AI listing priced against very large committed spend is the other live thread; debuts of that scale have tended to set the tone for the whole complex, with anchor and strategic participation from within the supply chain often read as demand validation, though circularity concerns have surfaced in comparable structures before. The calendar carries the more mechanical drivers: a 10-year auction, an energy outlook, and a dense central-bank speaker slate, a combination that has typically kept rates and the front end twitchy into the supply. The tell for the session is whether the semiconductor selling broadens from the named names into the wider AI complex or stays idiosyncratic, which in past episodes has separated a sentiment story from a flow story.