Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News - CRWV surges after results; Anthropic IPO reportedly multiple times oversubscribed

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: US cash bond trading is closed for Veterans Day, and the Canadian bond market is closed for Remembrance Day; equities open as usual in both.
• EARNINGS: Notable earnings reports due today include: Vylor (VYLR).

• Nvidia (NVDA) - US Commerce Secretary Lutnick was sent a classified memo warning about Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s relationship with a suspected Chinese spy ahead of President Trump’s 13-15th May visit to China earlier this year, Axios reports. The memo, overseen by Secretary of State Rubio, raised questions over US approvals of Nvidia chip exports. In other news, Baird cuts its PT on Nvidia to USD 200/shr (prev. USD 500/shr) and downgrades shares to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform'. Said 2027 data centre forecasts are being delayed due to very recent lack of visibility, with supply issues mostly the reason for a potential slowdown, but also due to potential demand softening as AI hyperscaler capex growth could slow to 40% or slightly less for 2027. While H300 lead times remain stretched and demand well exceeds supply, timing risks exist, while uncertainties related to CEO tenure also support a Neutral rating. Also, Nvidia removed as top pick at Morgan Stanley; keeps 'Overweight' rating.
• Nvidia (NVDA) - China’s military-linked Northwestern Polytechnical University purchased two Nvidia H200 AI chips for CNY 874,700 in October despite US export restrictions, Reuters reports. Procurement records show the blacklisted institution also rented access to restricted Nvidia processors through Chinese suppliers. Other Chinese universities, including defence-linked institutions, made similar purchases, highlighting gaps in US export controls.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) - Shares surged almost 16% in extended US trading following stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue and profits, alongside upgraded FY guidance and a growing order backlog; the release highlighted robust AI infrastructure demand. Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.95 (exp. -1.16), Revenue 3.66bln (exp. 3.54bln), +168% Y/Y, Adj. net loss 529mln (exp. loss 700.3mln), Adj. EBITDA 2.26bln (exp. 2.04bln), Adj. operating income 379mln (exp. 233.7mln). Revenue backlog increased to USD 132.5bln (from USD 104bln in Q2), while total debt reached nearly USD 47bln. Commentary: CEO Michael Intrator noted strong AI infrastructure demand. Expects USD 9bln in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months, with most remaining capital requirements financed through asset-backed loans and customer contracts rather than unsecured debt. It sees ‘no reason’ that its partnership with Nvidia (NVDA) will change. Guidance: Q4 interest expense 1.05-1.15bln. Raises FY26 revenue to 13.0-13.3bln (exp. 12.86bln; prev. 12.4-13.2bln), Adj. operating income 1.275-1.375bln (exp. 1.07bln; prev. 0.96-1.15bln), Capex 37-39bln (exp. 37.69bln; prev. 35-39bln). Targets annualised revenue of 20-21bln exiting 2026, with adj. net profitability expected by 2028.
• Anthropic (ANT) - Anthropic’s bankers are considering raising its IPO valuation to at least USD 1.5tln following strong investor demand, the FT reports. The proposed share price would exceed the initial USD 70-78 range, potentially lifting total fundraising above USD 100bln. Anthropic initially targeted up to USD 64bln, alongside a USD 26bln private placement involving Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT). Moreover, the IPO is multiple times oversubscribed, Bloomberg reports.
• OpenAI - OpenAI’s Q3 revenue surged 50% Q/Q to USD 10bln, accelerating from 17% growth in Q2, according to The Information. The rebound was driven by stronger demand for newer AI models and enterprise products. OpenAI disclosed the figures to investors while seeking to close a fundraising round at a USD 1.25tln valuation.
• TSMC (TSM) - Approved investments of up to USD 500mln each in Anthropic and OpenAI, WSJ reports. TSMC also approved USD 40.9bln in capex for advanced chip manufacturing, packaging, facilities and 2027 research and development.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Reportedly developing a paid Galaxy AI Premium subscription, potentially launching with the Galaxy S27 series, Maeil Business Newspaper reports. Proposed pricing is USD 4.99/month or USD 47.99/year, offering up to four times the free-tier usage allowance. Premium features could include AI-generated videos and cross-app Bixby Action automation, with early testing planned.
• Yangtze Memory Technologies - China’s YMTC is targeting a Shanghai STAR Market IPO as early as Q1 2027, seeking CNY 33bln, Bloomberg reports. Sources said plans remain active despite Reuters previously reporting a suspension. Bloomberg notes that YMTC has overtaken Kioxia and Micron to become the third-largest NAND memory supplier by shipments and is expanding into DRAM production.
• AI Debt - Morgan Stanley expects leveraged AI debt issuance to remain subdued through year-end amid higher borrowing costs and construction risks. October issuance totalled USD 5bln, entirely from Volta Infrastructure at yields above 11%. The bank anticipates greater volatility in data centre and neocloud debt, despite broader AI-related issuance reaching USD 646bln in 2026 (vs 216bln in 2025).
• Sonos (SONO) Q4 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.04 (exp. 0.05), Revenue 344mln (exp. 340.33mln). Announced a new USD 150mln share repurchase programme following completion of its previous USD 150mln buyback in Q4. CEO Tom Conrad highlighted a return to revenue growth in FY26, with growth across all regions, improved profitability and five new product launches. Guidance: Q1 revenue 570-630mln (exp. 296.06mln), Adj. EBITDA 73-111mln, Operating expenses 135-145mln. Management also anticipates further revenue growth in FY27. Expects memory and component costs to create approximately 1,200bps of Y/Y pressure, while a stronger USD is expected to reduce gross margin by nearly 100bps.
• IBM (IBM) - Quantum Nighthawk r3, its next-generation processor, will be built to accurately execute 10,000 quantum operations across 520 qubits to tackle larger, more complex problems while maintaining the speed and quality demonstrated by the current gen.

• Nintendo (NTDOY) - Sold 5.2mln copies of its ‘The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time’ remake within four days of its 5th November release, Bloomberg reports. The title surpassed cumulative sales of ‘Donkey Kong Bananza’, with only ‘Mario Kart World’ selling more units on the platform.
• StubHub (STUB) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 0.05 (exp. 0.14), Revenue 502mln (exp. 514mln). Gross Merchandise Sales 2.62bln (vs 2.43bln Y/Y). Commentary: CEO highlighted continued consumer demand for live events and confidence in the company’s marketplace position, citing positive Q3 performance and expectations for the remainder of FY26. Appointed Michael Noonan as CFO, effective 4th January 2027, succeeding Connie James, who will remain as a consultant for H1 2027 to support the transition. Guidance: Raises FY26 GMS to 10.175-10.375bln (prev. 10.1-10.3bln), while maintaining FY26 adj. EBITDA guidance 400-420mln.

• Alibaba (BABA) - Alibaba’s semiconductor unit T-Head received Hong Kong stock exchange clearance to proceed with its IPO, pending Chinese regulatory approval, WSJ reports. Nomura estimates a potential valuation of USD 85bln. Alibaba intends to retain T-Head as a subsidiary following the listing.
• Nissan Motor (NSANY) - Cut its FY vehicle sales forecast to 2.97-3.0mln units (prev. 3.15mln) amid weak Chinese demand and intensifying EV competition, Bloomberg reports. Q2 operating profit reached JPY 2.12bln (exp. 49.3bln), while H1 China sales fell 15%. Nissan maintained its FY financial outlook, anticipating improved H2 profitability, and plans to unveil a new strategy in February.
• Fossil (FOSL) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.23 (exp. -0.08), Revenue 271.2mln (exp. 248.66mln). DTC comparable retail sales +0.1%, with growth momentum across brands, channels and geographies. CEO highlighted strong consumer demand, product innovation and progress in its strategic turnaround. It announced a five-year extension of its global licensing agreement with Diesel through 2032, covering watch and jewellery design; also extended its partnership with Nick Jonas through 2028, with two new co-branded watch collections planned. Guidance: FY26 revenue 980-990mln (exp. 965.5mln; prev. decline of 3-5%), Adj. operating margin 5.5-6.5% (prev. 4-6%), reflecting stronger-than-expected YTD performance and continued business momentum.
• Tesla (TSLA) - To commence battery cell production within Germany in Gruenheide towards the middle of 2027.
• Capri (CPRI) - Announces CEO succession plan; Justin Boxford has been named CEO, effective 4th January 2027, and follows John D. Idol’s announcement that he will retire as Chairman and CEO.
• China Vehicle Sales - China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said overall vehicle sales fell by 9.2% Y/Y in October (prev. -8.4%). Domestic passenger vehicle sales are projected to fall below 19mln units in 2026 for the first time since 2014, highlighting weakening domestic demand. Meanwhile, FY vehicle exports are expected to exceed 11mln units.
• Kalshi - The CFTC has warned Kalshi of potentially imminent enforcement charges over alleged failures to notify regulators about new prediction market contracts, Politico reports. Kalshi described the issue as a procedural error affecting a handful of contracts, many not yet trading. Charges or a settlement remain possible.
• Volkswagen (VWAGY) - Reported record monthly sales of electric and hybrid vehicles in China, with October deliveries surging 350% Y/Y to over 28K units, Bloomberg reports. The company expects growth to continue through year-end and aims to rank among China’s top 10 new energy vehicle brands in 2027.

• Costco (COST) - Declares a special cash dividend of USD 30.00/shr, representing a total distribution of USD 13.3bln. The board also reauthorised a USD 4bln share repurchase programme, replacing the existing USD 4bln authorisation adopted in 2023, under which USD 3.1bln of shares had been repurchased. The new buyback programme will remain in effect until November 2030, extending the previous expiration date of January 2027.
• Albertsons (ACI) - Appointed Andrew Murray as CFO, effective 17th January 2027, succeeding interim CFO Cody Perdue, who has held the position since September. Murray currently serves as Group CFO of New Zealand dairy exporter Fonterra.
• Infant Formula - US baby food and formula prices surged 5.1% M/M in October, the largest increase on record, Bloomberg reports. NielsenIQ cited higher ingredient and transportation costs, alongside declining births, as potential drivers.

• Marsh & McLennan Companies (MRSH) - Agreed to acquire investment advisory and analytics firm Wilshire, which advises on USD 1.6tln in client assets and manages around USD 221bln, from CC Capital and Motive Partners; terms were undisclosed, and the deal is expected to close in Q1 2027. It expands Marsh’s wealth advisory, analytics and alternative investment capabilities.

• Realty Income (O) - Raises monthly cash dividend by 0.9% to USD 0.274/shr (prev. 0.2715).

• Hims & Hers (HIMS) - FTC said five additional US states joined a lawsuit alleging Hims & Hers shared sensitive consumer health information with Meta (META), Snap (SNAP) and other advertising platforms despite privacy assurances. The complaint also alleges misleading prescription charges, difficult subscription cancellations and violations of federal and state consumer protection laws.
• Alcon (ALC) Q3 2026 (USD): Net sales 2.71bln (prev. 2.58bln), Operating margin 14% (prev. 12.8%); now expects FY26 net sales growth of 6% (prev. 5-7%), and narrowed its guidance ranges for core operating margin and core diluted EPS as well.
• Amgen (AMGN) - Announced positive results from the Phase 3 OASIZ-301 study of dazodalibep. Both dazodalibep dosing regimens met the primary endpoint at Week 48, demonstrating statistically significant reductions in systemic disease activity compared with placebo, as measured by the ESSDAI score.

• Barrick Mining (B) - Filed a registration statement with the SEC for the proposed IPO of American Barrick Gold, which will hold its North American gold assets. The new entity intends to list on the NYSE under ticker ABGC. Offering size and pricing remain undetermined, with net proceeds expected to be returned to Barrick shareholders.
• AkzoNobel (AKZOY), Axalta (AXTA) - The UK CMA has raised concerns that the proposed AkzoNobel-Axalta merger could substantially lessen competition in UK markets. The CMA said the transaction will face an in-depth Phase 2 investigation unless the companies offer acceptable undertakings to address its competition concerns.
• Brenntag (BNTGY) Q3 2026 (EUR): Sales 4.26bln (exp. 4.08bln), Operating gross profit 1.06bln; FY EBITDA seen at the upper end of its EUR 1.35-1.45bln guidance range.

• ExxonMobil (XOM) - CEO Darren Woods will miss the COP31 climate summit in Turkey, ending three consecutive years of attendance, Bloomberg reports. Exxon cited logistical difficulties amid a challenging security environment. Woods had been the only major oil executive scheduled to address the conference. Exxon’s chief environmental scientist and head of low-carbon solutions will attend instead.
• Petrobras (PBR) Q3 2026 (BRL): Net profit 39.7bln (exp. 47.0bln), Adj. EBITDA 85.8bln (exp. 94.0bln), +34.3% Y/Y. Results were impacted by BRL 4.5bln in oil export taxes introduced following the outbreak of the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Announced shareholder remuneration of BRL 15.3bln. Oil and gas production reached record levels for a third consecutive quarter, prompting an increase in FY26 oil output expectations. Q3 capex +17% Y/Y to USD 6.4bln, while nine-month investments increased 20.2% Y/Y to USD 16.8bln. CEO highlighted record production and continued growth in output capacity, while CFO emphasised accelerating profitable investments and generating value through operating cash flow. Raises FY26 capex outlook by more than USD 4bln, reflecting currency effects and faster project execution rather than higher total project costs.
• Orlen SA (ORLNY) - Terminated a long-term LNG supply agreement with QatarEnergy after war-related disruptions prevented deliveries, becoming its first customer to cancel a contract, Bloomberg reports. The deal, valued at approximately EUR 570mln this year, was due to run until 2034 and remains effective for 60 days. Orlen retains a second QatarEnergy contract and has secured alternative US supplies.

• ADP (ADP) - Raises quarterly dividend to USD 1.90/shr (prev. 1.70/shr).
• Siemens Energy (SMERY) Q4 2026 (EUR): Net income 1.26bln (exp. 1.17bln), Revenue 12.8bln (exp. 12.5bln). Profit before special items 1.54bln (exp. 1.49bln), Orders 14.82bln (exp. 15.31bln). Proposes increasing the FY26 dividend to EUR 2.30/shr (prev. 0.70/shr Y/Y). Announced an additional EUR 9bln share repurchase programme through FY30, following EUR 3.1bln in buybacks during FY26. Sees FY27 profit margin before special items of 14-16%. Targets comparable compound annual revenue growth of 12-14% through FY30, with FY30 profit margin before special items of 20-22%.
• Vestas (VWDRY) Q3 2026 (EUR): Revenue 5.7bln (exp. 6.06bln), Adj. EBIT 483mln (exp. 526mln); turbine orders fell 27% by volume, driven by weaker US onshore demand. FY26 revenue guidance was narrowed to 20.5-21.5bln (prev. 20-22bln), Adj. EBIT margin tightened to 7.5-8.5% (prev. 7-9%).

• RWE (RWEOY), KKR & Co. (KKR) - RWE and KKR completed a 50/50 JV to develop the 2.8GW Vanguard East and West offshore wind farms in the UK, representing GBP 12bln in investment. The projects secured GBP 11.1bln in non-recourse financing plus GBP 1.7bln in ancillary facilities. Offshore construction begins in early 2027, with full commissioning expected in 2030.

• Fedspeak - Fed Governor Bowman (voter) warned that persistent inflation pressures mean further progress is needed to return inflation to the 2% target. Recent CPI data suggest price pressures could remain elevated for longer, while labour market conditions appear to be strengthening. Bowman highlighted upcoming October PCE inflation, where she thinks core PCE likely rose 3.3% in October (vs 3.1% in September) on energy prices and AI-related demand, as well as the November employment reports ahead of the Fed’s next meeting. She said inflation not being on a downward trend should give pause, likening it to how the Fed cut rates gradually last year, paused, then resumed. Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given elevated inflation, with more aggressive tightening possible if price pressures worsen. She noted underlying inflation remains between 2.5-3%, while the economy is stronger than expected and the labour market remains robust. Paulson said policy should stay somewhat restrictive, with future decisions dependent on economic developments and inflation risks. Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) described the latest CPI data as bordering on disturbing, citing persistent services inflation and signs of broader price pressures. He warned that inflation is driven by both supply and demand factors, while the labour market remains stable. Goolsbee stressed that all policy options remain available to return inflation to target.
• Fed Call - Goldman Sachs expects an additional 25bps Fed rate hike in March 2027, following a December increase, citing persistent inflation pressures. The bank revised its outlook after a third consecutive upside inflation surprise, pushing its first expected rate cut to December 2027 (prev. saw September 2027), with further cuts projected for March, June and September 2028. CME data implies that markets are fully discounting a 25bps hike at the 9th December confab, with around 15% probability of a larger 50bps move.
• Dollar, Yuan - Russia’s efforts to replace the USD with China’s CNY have faltered under US secondary sanctions, Bloomberg reports. The yuan’s share of Russian export payments has halved to 22% from its mid-2024 peak, while roubles now account for 69% of Asian export receipts. Chinese banks have restricted transactions, forcing businesses towards intermediaries, with cross-border payment costs averaging 15-20%.
• UK Inflation - NIESR forecasts that UK inflation will remain above the BoE’s 2% target until late 2030, peaking at 4.4% in February 2027 (it prev. forecast 3.8%). The think-tank raised its 2026 growth outlook to 1.6% (prev. saw 1.1%), but expects 1.1% in 2027 and 0.9% in 2028. It sees one BoE rate hike, in February 2027.
• Brazil Fiscal - Brazilian President Lula’s economic team is preparing fiscal proposals for Congress by next week, potentially restraining 2027 spending by BRL 50-60bln compared with this year’s budget, Bloomberg reports. Measures would enable spending freezes and restrict automatic increases in health and education spending from extraordinary revenues. The government targets a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP by 2030.

• Hegseth - The US House defeated a Republican-led attempt to impeach War Secretary Hegseth in a 211-204 procedural vote, ending the effort for this Congress. Representative Thomas Massie, who accused Hegseth of high crimes and misdemeanours, was the only Republican supporting the effort. Hegseth characterised the impeachment attempt as an attack on US troops and President Trump.
• US-Russia/China - US Ambassador to China Perdue said President Trump is open to nuclear talks with Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi. He expressed concerns about China indirectly benefiting from the Iran war and said Washington is not receiving sufficient cooperation from Beijing regarding the conflict.
• US-Iran - Qatari PM Al Thani told G7 foreign ministers in Paris that Doha had secured at least two weeks to pursue diplomatic efforts towards a US-Iran agreement, The Jerusalem Post reports citing diplomatic sources. However, he acknowledged significant differences between Washington and Tehran, with several key issues remaining unresolved.
• US-Iran - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently relocated from his Washington-area home to a military base following Iranian threats against his life, NYT reports. US intelligence indicated Iranian plots targeting US officials had reached an advanced stage. Bessent has led an economic pressure campaign against Tehran since August, targeting Iranian finances and trade routes.

• US-China - Treasury Secretary Bessent said Presidents Trump and Xi will meet in Shenzhen on 18-19th November, and again in Miami in December. Bessent will join the Shenzhen visit, where both countries plan discussions on AI model testing and direct incident alerts. He reiterated Washington’s aim to de-risk, not decouple, while rebalancing bilateral trade. Elsewhere, US Ambassador to China Perdue said the Nvidia (NVDA) affair underscores the need for US vigilance towards China. He described Beijing’s magnet export licensing regime as highly escalatory, saying the US is not receiving sufficient supplies. Perdue also noted that US-China military dialogue is resuming, while China has pledged to uphold most-favoured-nation treatment and multilateral trade rules.
• South Korea - South Korean exports surged 111.9% Y/Y to USD 33.5bln during 1st-10th November, Yonhap reports. Imports rose 45% to USD 24.7bln, leaving a provisional trade surplus of USD 8.75bln. Semiconductor exports jumped 331.2% to USD 16.6bln, accounting for 49.7% of shipments. YTD exports reached USD 963.6bln, approaching the USD 1tln milestone.