Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 10th September 2026

US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and will do much more than a nuclear deal.
US President Trump said he will give a 'Trump dividend' to every adult in the US of USD 5,000 if Republicans win the Midterm elections, while he added that the dividend must be spent in the US.
US equity futures lack a clear direction as markets await US PPI.
DXY rangebound; EUR waits for the ECB rate decision, NOK slightly softer following cooler-than-expected core CPI.
Fixed income benchmarks continue to be at the mercy of higher energy prices (Brent +1.3%).
Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI (Aug), Jobless Claims (Sep/05), Existing Home Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), ECB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, OPEC MOMR. Speakers include ECB President Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from Oracle & Adobe.

SNAPSHOT

STOCKS
Euro Stoxx 50	-0.2%	DAX40	-0.2%
Stoxx 600	-0.2%	FTSE 100	-0.4%
ES Sep'26	U/C	RTY Sep'26	U/C
NQ Sep'26	-0.3%	YM Sep'26	+0.1%

FX
DXY	U/C (98.81)	EUR/USD	U/C (1.1634)
USD/JPY	+0.1% (153.71)	GBP/USD	U/C (1.3545)

BONDS
US T-Note Dec'26	-6 ticks	Bund Dec'26	-21 ticks
US 10yr Yield	4.865%	German 10yr Yield	3.450%

ENERGY & METALS
WTI Oct'26	+1.8%	Brent Nov'26	+1.4%
Spot Gold	-0.3%	LME Copper	-0.1%

CRYPTO
Bitcoin	-0.5%	Ethereum	-0.1%

As of 10:45BST / 05:45EDT

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are mixed, with Italy's and Spain's main indices (IBEX 35/FTSE MIB +0.2%) outperforming while the FTSE 100 (-0.4%) is the slight laggard. Light in terms of newsflow this Thursday morning, with focus being on US data (PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday) and the ECB.
Sectors point to a mixed picture. Autos top the sector pile, followed by Travel & Leisure and Insurance. To the downside is Tech, with Basic Resources and Construction rounding out the sector laggards.
US equity futures are currently trading on either side of the unchanged mark; the YM (+0.1%) is incrementally firmer, whilst the NQ (-0.3%) posts slight losses. Elsewhere, the WSJ reported that South Korea is nearing a USD 100bln announcement of a major energy investment in the US to support the AI buildout.
Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
Click for the additional news

FX

Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the flat USD. The Kiwi incrementally gains, whilst the JPY posts slight losses. Ultimately, price action has been sideways this morning, with focus on US PPI and the ECB later.
DXY trades sideways and holds within a 98.70 to 98.82 range. There has been a lack of pertinent newsflow for the USD this morning, and it ultimately awaits US PPI this afternoon. There may be added focus on today’s report, with traders looking for any clues heading into the CPI report on Friday. Jobless Claims are also on the docket. Yields continue to trudge higher, as energy benchmarks remain above USD 100/bbl. However, as mentioned in yesterday's piece, the USD has largely ignored the higher yield environment. Much of this is likely due to the recent JPY strength, and also some fiscal-related fears creeping into markets. Moreover, markets will likely avoid making firm bets on the USD ahead of CPI (tomorrow) and the Fed next week.
EUR trades within a 1.1629 to 1.1641 range, and holds near its 200-DMA at 1.1633. EUR action will be dictated by the ECB this afternoon, where the Bank is set to deliver a 25bps hike. Aside from the decision, focus will be on the updated staff projections (inflation to be upwardly revised), and any guidance for action later in the year. ING opines that President Lagarde could use her presser to push back on some of the markets’ hawkish bets, which currently price in another hike this year. However, the likelihood is that the President will reiterate her data-dependent and non-committal approach.
JPY has been in focus for the past couple of weeks, with USD/JPY falling c. 4.5% since the start of the month. The pair is a bit more contained this morning, despite hawkish commentary from BoJ’s Masu, who stated that he expects to continue raising rates given current accommodative conditions. USD/JPY currently holds at the mid-point of a 153.28 to 153.74 range.

FIXED INCOME

Despite a slightly firmer start for Bunds and USTs, as energy took a relative breather in late-APAC/early-European trade, fixed has reverted into the red and continues to falter as energy climbs once more with Brent above USD 102/bbl.
USTs are once again below the 107-00 mark, and to an incremental WTD base of 106-29, which is also a contract low. Amidst this, yields are marginally firmer across the curve, with the 2yr to a 4.41% peak and the 10yr to 4.86%. Aside from the energy move, upside is a function of participants digesting commentary from President Trump at the RNC where he pledged a USD 5k dividend following a strong mid-term performance; while unlikely to occur, as it would need Congressional approval, the payment would cost in excess of USD 1tln and add further pressure to already strained public finances.
Today, for the US, the docket is dominated by PPI and weekly claims. Note, the PPI release comes ahead of Friday’s CPI, which could well define the outcome of the September Fed. Thereafter, we look to supply and given, counterintuitively, the upside seen in yields on the Treasury buyback announcement on Wednesday, the 30yr tap today may garner extra attention. For reference, the 10yr (after the buyback announcement) was very strong, with the mentioned yield move beforehand potentially providing some additional concession into it.
Bunds also lower, by just over 20 ticks at a 121.11 base, matching the low from Wednesday. Specifics for the region light, no move to final CPI earlier. Ahead, the docket is dominated by the ECB. A hike is widely expected, but the decision may not be a unanimous one. Additionally, we look for any deviation in the statement and/or Lagarde from the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, to a potential hawkish tilt given recent developments. On this, the 2027 & 2028 HICP forecasts will be key. However, recent moves in crude and TTF mean they are likely already somewhat stale and the expected upward revision to the forecasts is perhaps not sufficient. Something that may be elaborated on by Lagarde.
The UK sells GBP 5bln 4.625% 2030 Treasury Gilt: b/c 3.24x, average yield 4.786%, tail 0.3bps.
Italy sells EUR 7.75bln vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.75bln 3.00% 2029, 3.35% 2033 and 2.15% 2072 BTP.

COMMODITIES

WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures eke out mild gains, with prices continuing to be underpinned by the Middle Eastern situation, which shows no signs of abating. The former resides in a current USD 95.37-97.84/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 93.76-96.93/bbl range) whilst the latter trades in a USD 100.19-102.72/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 98.80-101.87/bbl parameter). Upside is somewhat capped by the delayed Private Inventory report, which showed a smaller draw than expected, with the DoE slated for today on account of Monday’s US holiday. Dutch TTF front-month has mounted EUR 80/MWh after finding an earlier base just above EUR 78/MWh, with prices continuing to be underpinned by Middle East supply woes alongside heating demand heading out of summer.
Metals are subdued as higher energy prices keep the complex capped from a growth perspective, although participants await fresh drivers. Ahead, the ECB is unlikely to sway metals much, although US PPI could have an impact, particularly on precious metals. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,388-4,435/oz range after finding support near yesterday’s USD 4,434/oz high. Note that yesterday, the bullion found support at its 100 DMA (today at 4,340/oz). 3M LME copper trades around record highs in a current USD 14,742.65- 14,870.78/t range.
In terms of geopolitics, US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and that they will win the war with Iran, while Iran said they are ready for a more intense war if required. Several explosions were heard yesterday in Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, while an oil tanker was reportedly being targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, mediator Pakistan warned Iran to restrain Yemen’s Houthi militants after a rise in attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Houthis attacked Saudi cities with ballistic missiles and drones, and Saudi Arabia reportedly conducted airstrikes in Yemen. Pakistan's Foreign Minister said that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement, but when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.
US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -1.9mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate +2.0mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.3mln.
US Energy Secretary Wright said the current refining capacity is a bigger problem than crude oil supply.
IEA's Birol said their new report shows global coal demand is now set to rise by 1.2% in 2026.
Russia's Ryazan oil refinery (~350k BPD) has been idle since a September 6 drone attack, according to sources.
Oman OSP for November-loading crude set at USD 119.30/bbl (prev. USD 87.84/bbl in October).
Czech PM Babis said the EU should halt the ETS1 carbon allowances system and delay ETS2 due to the higher energy prices.

TRADE/TARIFFS

US trade official said China is ramping up their purchases and is on track to fulfil farm purchases ahead of Chinese President Xi's Washington visit, according to SCMP. It was separately reported that China bought 1mln tons of US soybeans ahead of Xi's visit to the US, according to sources.
The South Korean government is considering artificial intelligence investments as part of its trade agreement with the Trump administration, WSJ reported, with a deal that could potentially be worth in excess of USD 100bln.
China's MOFCOM said China and the US are in consultations on arrangement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut framework, Xinhua reported.
China is extending the anti-dumping probe into pecans from both Mexico and the US.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

German HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
German HICP Final (Aug YY) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%).
Norwegian Core CPI (Aug YY) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 2.7%).
Norwegian Core CPI (Aug MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.8%).
Swedish GDP (Jul MM) -0.8% (Prev. -0.2%).
Italian Industrial Production (Jul MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -1.1%).
Italian Industrial Production (Jul YY) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.6%).
Spanish Industrial Production (Jul YY) 2.3% (Prev. 1.1%); M/M 0.6% (exp. 0.2%).
UK RICS House Price Balance (Aug) -28 vs Exp. -30 (Prev. -30, Rev. -29).

CENTRAL BANKS

BoJ Board Member Masu said one‑ to two‑year real interest rates remain negative and that they need to keep the price trend from going above 2%, while he added that the BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates given current accommodative financial conditions. Masu said Japan is no longer in deflation, so real interest rates should be moved out of negative territory as soon as possible, and noted that the policy rate is approaching the estimated neutral-rate range, so prices, employment and financial conditions must be monitored carefully. Furthermore, he said with Japan’s financial conditions still accommodative, the BoJ could be forced to raise rates rapidly if inflation accelerates, and that the BoJ must raise rates further and move its policy rate within the estimated neutral-rate range so it can conduct policy flexibly.
In further comments, BoJ's Masu said underlying inflation is gradually approaching 2%, but currently does not expect it to rise substantially above that level. When asked about a 50bps hike, Masu said the bank should proceed cautiously with hikes. On the Yen, Masu stated that they will closely assess the yen’s appreciation and rising crude oil and global food prices at next week’s policy meeting. Masu added that they have emergency market operations as a tool, but that is only saved for exceptional moves in JGB markets.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US President Trump said he will give a 'Trump dividend' to every adult in the US of USD 5,000 if Republicans win the Midterm elections, while he added that the dividend must be spent in the US.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent touted tax cuts, job increases, trade rebalance and Trump accounts during his speech at the RNC Midterm Convention.
BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 5th Sept) +7.8% Y/Y (prev. +3.7% W/W). BofA said that the surge in spending growth was likely due to base effects from the shift in Labour Day timing and a rebound in gas prices.
A US AI safety bill could be introduced next week, Semafor reported citing sources.
A US Republican-led Senate subcommittee is investigating OpenAI's handling of the Hugging Face breach in July, Axios reported.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

US President Trump said they will win the war with Iran and that oil prices will go down as soon as they win, while he suggested calling the Hormuz Strait the Trump Strait. Trump said 'may have to give them a shot at Pickaxe Mountain' and advised Iran not to get cute as the US would have to hit them very hard.
Top White House advisers have raised privately with US President Trump the prospect that the Iran conflict could last through the remainder of his term, according to WSJ.
CBS reporter Jennifer Jacobs noted that multiple US military aircraft suffered damage in strikes the prior night on the Salti Air Base in Jordan.
Several explosions were heard in Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, with the sounds reportedly originating from the sea, according to Fars News Agency. Furthermore, IRNA cited official sources that stated areas in Sirik were hit by projectiles, although SNN reported that no points in Sirik have been targeted.
Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesperson said the Makkah defence agreement is a defensive alliance focused on deterrence, with expansion not currently planned until its foundations are solidified. The Ministry added that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement but that when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.
An Iranian lawmaker said Iran can take "special measures" in response to the IAEA's resolution and may consider action.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Russia's Defence Ministry said they struck Ukraine's Black Sea port of Chornomorsk and two ships near Odessa.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck eight infrastructure targets supporting Russian military operations over the past 24 hours, including an oil refinery in Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets region and a seaport in Dagestan.
Ukraine's Air Force said attack drones targeted Zaporozhzhia and that drone groups were headed to Dnipro and Kamienske.
Poland’s Operational Command said military aviation remains active and ground-based air defense and radar systems are on alert due to potential threats to Polish airspace from Russian drone activity in western Ukraine.
NATO allies have reportedly caught Russian submarines training to debut a secret weapon which could disable critical undersea cables, without leaving evidence, Reuters reported.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin trades in a narrow USD 77.9k-78.52k range as it stabilises following Wednesday's afternoon selloff.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the losses stateside, where all major indices declined as yields and oil prices climbed, with Brent crude topping USD 100/bbl for the first time since July.
ASX 200 underperformed amid broad-based weakness across sectors and with the downside led by materials, mining, resources, and tech.
Nikkei 225 was pressured alongside a higher yield environment and ongoing rate hike expectations, while BoJ board member Masu also stuck to the hawkish hymn sheet.
KOSPI declined at the open but was off today's worst levels as SK Hynix rebounded from intraday lows.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the subdued mood across the region in the absence of bullish drivers and after the PBoC conducted open market operations, but at a paltry amount of CNY 3bln.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

PBoC's Lu Lei said the Bank will refine the RRR framework and conduct open-market operations more flexibly and precisely.
Japanese MOF Official Sato said the government is not considering buying back JGBs at this point.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep) 4.9% (Prev. 4.9%).