Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 28th August 2026

• Two regional sources told Axios that in recent days Iran has shown renewed interest in negotiations, Axios reported.
• US equity futures trade mixed as Nvidia pulls back from its record-setting day.
• DXY rangebound; G10s lack direction ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address.
• Fixed income benchmarks await a busy speaker slate; OATs steady after the presidential debate.
• Energy benchmarks subdued amid a lack of escalation.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian GDP (Jul), US Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prelim, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27th-29th). Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh, Hammack, Goolsbee, BoE's Bailey, Mann, ECB’s Schnabel and Kocher. Credit Ratings including Fitch on France, Moody's on Switzerland, S&P on Portugal, and Morningstar DBRS on the Netherlands.

As of 10:40BST / 05:40EDT

EQUITIES

• European bourses are entirely in the green, with the CAC 40 the clear outperformer as it rebounds from yesterday's downside. The main driver of Thursday's losses was the presidential debate that took place between candidates. The key focus was on how the candidates would approach France's debt problem; no consensus was agreed on the stage on how to solve the problem, but suggestions ranged from waiving interest payments on ECB-owned debt to cutting welfare spending. Overall, Politico says no candidate pulled off a clear winner and that the presidential race remains open.
• Sectors highlight the positive bias. Consumer Products & Services top the sector pile, with Autos and Chemicals rounding out the top 3 performers. To the downside is Media, followed by Real Estate and Retail.
• Key movers include: UK defence names, FT reported that Chancellor Healey will shelve its defence spending target at October's budget; EssilorLuxottica (+3.3%), announces share buybacks of up to 5mln shares; Strabag (+10.7%), H1 revenue beat and raises its FY26 guidance; Siemens (+1.5%), upgraded to buy at Erste.
• US equity futures are mixed, with YM outperforming while the NQ lags as Nvidia pulls back from its 8.7% gains made in Thursday's session. Shares of PayPal and Marvell are falling pre-market, down 12.7% and 8.2% respectively. For PayPal, the group led by Advent and Stripe has reportedly abandoned its pursuit of PayPal, according to Bloomberg. For Marvell, its Q2 metrics only narrowly beat expectations and its gross margin guidance came in at the low end of consensus.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

FX

• G10s lack a bias ahead of the Warsh Jackson Hole speech with **most currencies flat vs the USD. **
• DXY ekes modest gains after surpassing the 200DMA of 99.16 ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's speech. Performance across majors is lacklustre with most currencies weaker, albeit small in magnitude.
• Into the speech, some analysts have suggested that the market could again be left disappointed; Saxo Bank says the title of the forum suggests that Warsh will deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing rather than the Fed’s thoughts on interest rates - Previous Fed chairs have used the forum to signal upcoming policy actions. However, Warsh has begun his term with a bias against issuing any forward guidance, and has made the case that such guidance can shackle officials to their earlier forecasts, and his approach of little guidance will allow markets to interpret the data themselves.
• MUFG says the closest historical comparisons to today’s speech are “probably 2008 or 2016” given the level of uncertainty, which both garnered 0.7% move in EUR/USD - FX options price a 46pip move in EUR/USD today, lower than the historicals that MUFG refers to.
• While OATs saw some weakness at the open, EUR was steady throughout the French Presidential debate. Focus now shifts to Fitch’s rating on France this evening, seen unchanged, and the Socialist party which are set to unveil demands for France’s 2027 budget over the weekend. EUR/USD likely at the whim of the Buck into the highly anticipated Warsh speech, 200DMA c. 10 pips below will likely support the pair for the moment.
• GBP/USD is flat but off worst levels after finding support at 1.3580. A couple updates on the domestic political front. The FT reported UK Chancellor Healey will shelve defence spending targets when presenting the October budget, a move which could save as much as GBP 10bln/year, based on OBR forecasts. It was separately reported that there could be potential modifications to council taxes, though no GBP move was seen on this report.

FIXED INCOME

• Fixed benchmarks are under very mild pressure this morning, but with price action ultimately muted ahead of the day’s key risk events. USTs (-2 ticks) trade within a narrow 108-16 to 108-20 range, whilst Bunds (-21 ticks) and Gilts (-29 ticks) are hampered by elevated gas prices.
• USTs are trading in an exceptionally thin range this morning as attention remains on two key risk events. Firstly, Fed Chair Warsh is set to speak at 15:00 BST (10:00 EDT). Whether he touches on monetary policy remains to be seen, but even if he doesn’t, there is a risk markets will begin to price in credibility woes once again. At the same time as Warsh, the BLS will release the annual NFP benchmark revision; consensus sees a revision of +200k.
• Over in Europe, EGBs and Gilts have been subject to a few days in the red, as gas prices remain elevated. A lot of that pressure is attributed to fears surrounding low gas storage, and recent punchy rhetoric out of Russia has also not helped the mood.
• For France specifically, OATs have had the first Presidential debate to digest. Ultimately, there was no clear victor, but the confab made evident the stark contrast in views held between parties. This can be evidenced in the 10yr OAT/Bund spread, which remains near recent highs at 85bps, but ultimately fairly stable today.
• OATs (-15 ticks) are faring a touch better vs peers this morning, potentially as leading candidate Le Pen provided further colour on how she would solve France’s debt problem. She noted that spending needed to be cut, arguing that France should not commit more than EUR 5bln to the EU (vs ~EUR 29bln in 2026). She said she would present a EUR 125bln cost-cutting plan before the next budget debate, which will only happen once PM Lecornu submits the 2027 budget bill (end-Sept).
• Italy sells EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 5.75-6.5bln 3.15% 2031, 4.00% 2036 BTP and EUR 2bln vs. EUR 1.5-2bln 1.773% 2034, 1.645% 2035 CCTeu.
• Japan sells JPY 2.15tln 2-year JGBs: b/c 2.97x (prev. 3.63x), average yield 1.708% (prev. 1.483%), Tail in price 0.034 (prev. 0.007).
• Australia sells AUD 800mln 4.25% December 2035 Bonds: b/c 3.88x, avg. yield 5.0539%.

COMMODITIES

• Geopolitical updates have lacked anything tangible, even though rhetoric has been hawkish. US President Trump dismissed immediate negotiations and suggested sanctions and the Hormuz blockade are putting Tehran under severe strain. Washington says the Strait of Hormuz has been cleared of mines and shipping lanes reopened, while Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing G20 countries to cut Iranian and IRGC revenue flows. Iran, meanwhile, says it is preparing conditions for reopening the Strait, has agreed on a potential corridor with Oman, and warns it could strike US military and economic interests if pressure continues. Despite mediation efforts by Oman and Qatar, the US says no negotiations are currently planned and does not recognise the reported Iran-Oman arrangement.
• Nonetheless, amid the lack of a notable escalation, WTI and Brent futures are subdued intraday, with the former in a USD 82.54-83.78/bbl range and the latter in a USD 87.60-88.61/bbl range. Participants, as usual, are eyeing any tangible updates on escalations/de-escalations. Dutch TTF, conversely, is firmer by around 2.2% at EUR 69.79/MWh, continuing to be buoyed by supply concerns as Europe replenishes winter stock. Note that the contract briefly notched the EUR 70/MWh mark.
• Precious metals are firmer despite a resilient USD against the backdrop of softer oil prices, but following two sessions of weakness. Spot gold resides towards the top of a narrow USD 4,571-4,614/oz range within yesterday’s band between USD 4,564-4,643/oz. Spot silver gains after finding a comfortable footing above its 100 DMA (USD 68.19/oz), with the precious metal back on a USD 70/oz handle in a USD 68.44-70.95/oz range.
• Base metals mostly eke mild gains despite DXY remaining resilient, and with downside capped amid expectations for near-term Chinese stimulus. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 14,277.65-14,345.00/t range at the time of writing.
• Venezuela is reportedly mulling leaving OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Saudi Aramco reportedly sold around 4mln barrels of Arab Medium and Heavy crudes to Chinese refiners for loading in September at locations just outside Hormuz, Bloomberg reported.
• Chinese State Planner is to raise domestic gasoline prices by CNY 375/t and diesel by CNY 360/t.
• Kazakhstan has restored oil production to normal levels, which were previously reduced due to the attacks on the CPC, according to Interfax.
• Qatar Energy extended the LNG force majeure to Edison (EDNR IM) until November 4th.
• Global Aluminium producer is seeking a premium of USD 310/t for October-December 2026 in talks with Japan (-22% Q/Q), according to source reports.
• Ukraine’s agriculture minister said the country’s winter wheat planting area is expected to decline in 2027.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• Canada's ambassador to Washington said Canada cannot accept a US trade deal unless it ensures survival of robust Canadian auto assembly and parts industry, while he stated that Canada's removal of tariffs on US seafood was done more for technical reasons than as a sign of a quick resumption of negotiations.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• UK Chancellor Healey will reportedly shelve defence spending target when presenting October budget, the FT reported.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• European Consumer Confidence Final (Aug) -15.5 vs. Exp. -15.5 (Prev. -15.9).
• European Economic Sentiment (Aug) 98.4 vs. Exp. 97.5 (Prev. 97.1).
• European Industrial Sentiment (Aug) -5.3 vs. Exp. -5.2 (Prev. -6.1).
• European Services Sentiment (Aug) 5.8 vs. Exp. 4.9 (Prev. 5.1).
• European Selling Price Expectations (Aug) 16.4 (Prev. 17.8).
• French CPI Prel (Aug YY) 2.4% (Prev. 2.1%).
• French CPI Prel (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%).
• French HICP Preliminary (Aug YY) 2.7% (Prev. 2.4%).
• French HICP Preliminary (Aug MM) 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%).
• French GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 QQ) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%).
• French GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.9%).
• Spanish CPI Prel (Aug YY) 4.3% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 3.6%).
• Spanish CPI Prel (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.3%).
• Spanish HICP Preliminary (Aug YY) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 3.9%).
• Spanish HICP Preliminary (Aug MM) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0%).
• German Unemployment Rate (Aug) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.4%).
• German Import Prices (Jul MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.7%).
• German Import Prices (Jul YY) 6.8% (Prev. 6.1%).
• UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Aug) +53% (Prev. +49%).

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Kazaks said that inflation must not be allowed to take root.
• Poll shows 27 out of 31 economists expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR by 25bps to 2.75% at next week's meeting, while more than two thirds of economists at least one more rate hike after September to lift the OCR to 3.00% or above by year-end

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump's administration is mulling a 500mln gallon boost to 2027 biofuel quotas to offset exemptions, according to sources.
• A US judge blocked the US Postal Service from implementing key parts of the Trump-backed rule designed to restrict mail-in voting.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Two regional sources told Axios that in recent days Iran has shown renewed interest in negotiations, Axios reported.
• US President Trump posted that "Iran Is a Failing Nation!", while he separately commented "I don’t want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal".
• US Central Command Commander Cooper said the US military successfully cleared sea mines laid in Strait of Hormuz and international shipping lanes are open.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said discussions with Qatar’s PM and foreign minister showed diplomacy could be restored, but argued that the US must abandon pressure, build trust, respect Iran’s rights, and honour its commitments.
• Iran's Parliament Member Kawsari said "Any agreement with Oman is subject to the lifting of the naval blockade." US messages have reached through Qatar, Oman and Pakistan, but Iran will only enter the operational phase after implementing several paragraphs.
• Yemeni sources reported that Saudi artillery targeted residential villages in the Al-Thabit area of Qatabar, Saada Province, Yemen, Nour News reported.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukraine's Military said it struck an oil refinery in Yaroslavl, Russia.

OTHER

• Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan will respond calmly and appropriately to relations with China and will keep dialogue open.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin briefly extended above USD 81k before paring back the earlier gains and falling below USD 80k.

• APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped following the varied performance stateside, where all indices rose and the Nasdaq outperformed post-NVIDIA earnings, but almost all sectors were in the red aside from tech, while the attention turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Warsh's keynote speech.
• ASX 200 was higher with notable outperformance in tech, although consumer stocks and real estate lagged amid the recent increased bets for the RBA to resume its hiking cycle next month.
• Nikkei 225 rallied as participants digested the latest data releases, including a surprise decline in the Unemployment Rate, while Tokyo CPI matched estimates, with the Core reading remaining beneath the 2% goal.
• KOSPI bucked the trend amid weakness in South Korean tech giants despite the sector doing much of the heavy lifting across global markets, while there was a report that SK Hynix lagged rivals in NAND process-node transitions, with slower upgrades and reduced NAND capex eroding its cost competitiveness and market share.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat but with the upside limited amid a slew of earnings releases and with participants also bracing for results from Chinese big banks.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• S&P affirmed China at A+; Outlook Stable. Said a stable outlook on long term rating reflects the view that China will provide larger fiscal support to keep the economy growing at around 4% over the next two years.
• China’s Ministry of Finance said the country will implement proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year; long term positive fundamentals remain unchanged.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

• Japanese Tokyo CPI (Aug YY) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.8%).
• Japanese Tokyo Core CPI (Aug YY) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.7%).
• Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (Aug YY) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.0%).
• Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jul) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%).