Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 29th September 2026

• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran discussed proposals with Qatari mediators to present to the US, and that a response is to be relayed to Tehran through Qatari mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister said they expect a US response today; Brent -0.2%
• Iran was reported to have agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, although the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson later denied these reports.
• US President Trump denied reports that he is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue.
• European bourses are firmer; US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark.
• DXY is slightly stronger, holding just shy of 101.50; Aussie lags after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps, though Governor Bullock tilted dovish.
• Gilts outperform ahead of UK PM Burnham; USTs await data, Fed speak and geopolitical updates.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS (Aug). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, Vujcic & Lane, Fed’s Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr & Waller, BoC’s Gravelle, BoE's Taylor & Mann. Earnings from Micron.

SNAPSHOT

STOCKS
Euro Stoxx 50	+0.7%	DAX 40	+0.2%
Stoxx 600	+0.5%	FTSE 100	+0.3%
ES Dec'26	-0.1%	RTY Dec'26	-0.2%
NQ Dec'26	U/C	YM Dec'26	-0.1%

FX
DXY	+0.3% (101.46)	EUR/USD	-0.3% (1.1333)
USD/JPY	+0.1% (157.46)	GBP/USD	-0.2% (1.3225)

BONDS
US T-Note Dec'26	-1 ticks	Bund Dec'26	+15 ticks
US 10yr Yield	5.24%	German 10yr Yield	3.63%

ENERGY & METALS
WTI Nov'26	-0.3%	Brent Dec'26	-0.3%
Spot Gold	+0.7%	LME Copper	-0.1%

CRYPTO
Bitcoin	+1.1%	Ethereum	+2.1%

As of 10:45BST / 05:45 EDT

LOOKING AHEAD

• Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS (Aug). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, Vujcic & Lane, Fed’s Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr & Waller, BoC’s Gravelle, BoE's Taylor & Mann. Earnings from Micron.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview

IRAN CONFLICT

Diplomacy

• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran discussed proposals with Qatari mediators to present to the US, and response is to be relayed to Tehran through Qatari mediators, adds conditions set by Supreme Leader must be met to reopen Strait of Hormuz. If the US wants a deal or peace, Iran has offered a solution. He will fly to Tehran in a few hours, and the Qataris will know how to reach us whenever they have the answer. Expects US response on Tuesday. Communications and messages exchanged by Qatari and Pakistani mediators have always been, but now they have taken a more serious form due to the plan presented by Iran.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran's positions have not changed and conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz are clear, while their position on other matters is clear. Hopeful the US' final answer will be conveyed via Qatari "by tomorrow".
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said media reported about the content of consultations with the Qatari mediator are baseless speculation, noting such accounts have no basis in reality and no discussion of the details of the issues took place.
• Iran Foreign Ministry Iranian delegation met with Qatar mediator on Monday afternoon at the UNGA, adds media speculation on Qatar talks is false and that there were no talks held on detailed issues with Qatari mediator. said:. Iran delegation will depart New York for Tehran on Monday night.
• Iranian MP Ebrahim Rezaei said no negotiations will begin until the US fulfils its commitments in the Islamabad understanding, while he stated that Iranian diplomats lack permission for bilateral or trilateral talks in the current situation. said:. US failed to release blocked funds after Islamabad deal.
• UN Secretary-General Guterres requested in a meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi for a continuation of negotiations to achieve peace, according to Fars News Agency.
• US President Trump posted "Axios just released a story that “Trump” offered Sanctions Relief and Frozen Funds to Iran. This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING! Axios’ story, like most others, is a HOAX". Full post "Axios just released a story that “Trump” offered Sanctions Relief and Frozen Funds to Iran. This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING! Axios’ story, like most others, is a HOAX, used only for purposes of satisfying their Trump Derangement Syndrome. They should withdraw this fake story, IMMEDIATELY!".

Please see the geopolitics section below for details.

---

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are broadly firmer this morning, with sentiment buoyed by increased hopes of US-Iran diplomacy – although uncertainty remains (see commodities for details). The energy complex has waned off best levels throughout the London morning, which has also helped lift the equities complex.
• European sectors hold a positive bias. Tech takes the top spot, reversing some of the pressure seen in the prior session. Industrials and Basic Resources complete the top three, with the latter rebounding from the pressure seen on Monday. To the downside, Food Beverage & Tobacco is joined by Energy and Optimised Personal Care.
• US equity futures are currently trading on either side of the unchanged mark; the NQ (U/C) holds flat, whilst the ES and RTY are lower by c. 0.1%. Focus today will be on President Trump’s meeting with AI heads, where discussions will be on AI oversight/safety and competition with China. The day ahead is packed with a number of Fed speakers, as well as US JOLTS job openings.
• It is also worth noting that Trump's pharma tariffs (announced in Apr), will take effect on a number of key nations today. A 15% levy has been put on the EU, South Korea and Switzerland. Some analysts opine that the new measures could see a reduction in medication available to customers, and could even lead to higher prices.

FX

• DXY is firmer after strengthening on Monday alongside higher US yields, with the Buck supported by elevated energy prices and continued Fed tightening expectations. DXY briefly rose from around 101.30 to above 101.38 in recent trade before paring slightly despite a dip in yields at the time, with the index currently towards session highs in a 101.17-101.44 range.
• EUR/USD is softer as the Dollar strengthens, with the pair extending below 1.1350 and trading towards the bottom of a 1.1343-1.1374 range. Spanish CPI printed hotter than expected at 4.9% Y/Y (exp. 4.7%, prev. 4.3%), with Core CPI also rising to 3.1% from 2.9%, although the data provided little support to the Single Currency.
• GBP is softer against the Dollar and trades towards the lower end of a 1.3227-1.3258 range. Sterling-specific newsflow centres on PM Burnham’s Labour conference speech later, where reports suggest he will edge the party closer towards rejoining the EU and signal an end to the pensions triple lock, although price action thus far remains largely driven by the firmer Dollar.
• JPY is broadly flat against the Dollar but outperforming most G10 peers, with USD/JPY trading around the middle of a 157.20-157.59 range. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama reiterated that the undervalued Yen is problematic and said Japan and the US agreed to bolster cooperation on FX after discussions with Treasury Secretary Bessent.
• Antipodeans underperform, led by AUD following the RBA. The Bank unanimously hiked rates by 25bps to 4.60% and retained the option of further tightening, but Governor Bullock subsequently struck a more dovish-than-usual tone, saying she hopes the four hikes delivered this year will be restrictive enough to slow inflation and that further hikes may not be needed if inflation comes down. AUD/USD fell from 0.7021 during the press conference to a 0.6973 low and remains close to session lows. NZD is also softer against the Dollar.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said exchanged views on FX trends with US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Friday and agreed to bolster cooperation, adds we believe the undervalued yen, in general, is problematic. said:. Will continue close communications with US Treasury to ensure orderly Forex markets. PM Takaichi's administration is not reflationary. Closely monitoring bond markets. Interest rates are determined by markets. Will communicate closely with bond markets and conduct appropriate debt management policy. Will communicate closely with market participants while maintaining high sense of urgency.

FIXED INCOME

• A firmer start to the day, but the magnitudes vary significantly. USTs near-enough flat, awaiting an update on the geopolitical front; as it stands, Iran has suggested that a final response from the US could be presented to them by the US via Qatari mediators. Though, details on that remain light. Nonetheless, and despite relatively punchy (but familiar) Iranian rhetoric, energy has eased off highs across the morning.
• USTs flat in 104-08+ to 104-19 parameters. Aside from the above, the day features a handful of Fed speakers that may prove pertinent in addition to the latest JOLTS and confidence data stateside.
• Bunds firmer by around 20 ticks at the time of writing, a few ticks shy of Monday’s 119.71 peak thus far. Specifics for the space are a little light, no move to ECB speak or a handful of data points. Otherwise, focus remains on the energy complex, and particularly TTF which continues to ease but remains well above EUR 70/MWh.
• Gilts outperform, firmer by c. 50 ticks at best, but have eased modestly off the 84.44 peak across the morning. Outperformance comes ahead of the 14:00BST speech by UK PM Burnham at the Labour Party Conference. A speech that is expected to touch on a number of topics as part of his plan for the UK ahead.
• Particular focus will be on the triple lock, reports hint that he will open the door to an end to this in his speech, by signalling a review of it as part of the next Labour manifesto. Reporting that drives Gilts higher, as the fiscal cost of the commitment is already significant and is projected to increase markedly in the years ahead. However, it remains to be seen if there is the political/public appetite for this, and what measure(s) Burnham will have to provide to offset the hit to pensioners. For reference, projections for the lock suggest it will cost over GBP 15bln/yr in 2030.
• Italy sold EUR 6.5bln (vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln) 3.95% 2032 and 4.00% 2036 BTPs.
• UK sold GBP 4.25bln 4.875% 2036 Gilt: b/c 3.34x (prev. 3.65x), average yield 5.383% (prev. 5.155%), tail 0.5bps (prev. 0.1bps).
• Deutsche Telekom (DTE GY) files to sell EUR 1.5bln three-parter.
• Japan sold JPY 300bln in 40-year JGBs; b/c 3.10x (prev. 2.82x), highest accepted yield 4.125% (prev. 3.865%). Price at the highest accepted yield 93.69 (prev. 98.68).

COMMODITIES

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures are modestly firmer/flat but off earlier highs as traders continue to digest conflicting US-Iran developments (see below). WTI trades towards the lower end of a USD 92.44-94.74/bbl range, while Brent similarly sits near the bottom of a USD 97.62-100.28/bbl range, albeit both firmer intraday.
• Dutch TTF is softer, pulling back from earlier highs despite continued concerns around European energy security. The European Commission has asked member states to consider measures to reduce gas and electricity demand for as long as necessary. TTF is choppy but currently towards the middle of a EUR 71.65-73.10/MWh range.
• Precious metals are firmer as they attempt to recover some of Monday’s heavy losses, helped by the modest pullback in global yields this morning. Spot gold trades towards the upper end of a USD 4,113-4,149/oz range, although fundamentals remain against the yellow metal amid high energy prices and expectations of further Fed tightening. Spot silver is flat towards the middle of a narrow USD 60.29-61.03/oz range.
• Base metals are softer, with the complex remaining near recent lows amid subdued risk sentiment and ahead of China’s holiday period. 3M LME copper sits at the bottom of a USD 14,391-14,518/t range, while COMEX copper is lower by around 0.6%.
• In geopolitics, Iran expects a US response today to its latest proposal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although reports of Tehran showing flexibility on its nuclear position were denied by Iranian officials, while Trump also denied offering sanctions relief or frozen funds in return for nuclear concessions. This morning, Iran’s Parliament Speaker warned that if Iran cannot sell oil, no one in the region will sell oil, while an explosion was reported involving a commercial vessel in the Strait and Houthis reportedly attacked oil facilities in Yanbu. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia has resumed crude loading from Yanbu following partial repairs to the East-West pipeline.
• Gas production in Iran's South Pars Phase 11 reaches 1bln cubic feet, IRIB reported.
• Iraqi Oil Ministry announces the start of trial operations for the storage capacity project at the Nasiriyah gas depot, INA reported.
• EU Energy Commissioner Jorgensen said they do not want to relax methane rules, but rather to delay their implementation.
• Spanish Energy Minister said that Spain, Portugal and Luxembourg sent a letter to the Commission asking for a new renewable energy capacity. Spain wants the EU to consider measures to capture windfall profits from high energy prices. Spain is still waiting for a response to the proposal. Spain wants a permanent levy on the oil and gas industry to raise climate funds.
• Syria said gas pipeline fire between Al-Shola and Deir al-Zour caused by sabotage, while efforts underway to extinguish fire and fire stopped gas supply from Jbeissa plant to power stations.
• British government is said to be privately lobbying the Trump administration for an exemption should the US impose any diesel export ban, according to sources.
• IEA Chief Birol said Europe is one of the regions most exposed to the degrading diesel market, which the IEA is monitoring closely. IEA will discuss with member governments whether more strategic reserve releases are needed. IEA is discussing the situation with countries.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) are lobbying US President Trump's administration to stop lawmakers from curbing exports to China, Politico reported citing sources; asking that lawmakers hold off on the China-related chip export restriction in the defence bill. The legislation in question has bipartisan support.
• US import bans on a range of Canadian products, including alcoholic beverages, dairy ingredients and some motorcycles, took effect as scheduled.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• UK PM Burnham has been warned by one of Britain’s largest unions that scrapping the triple lock on state pensions to help fund free social care for the elderly would be “electoral suicide” amid growing cabinet splits, reported The Times.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• Italian PPI (Aug MM) 2.4% (Prev. 2.3%).
• Italian PPI (Aug YY) 10.9% (Prev. 7.8%).
• Italian Industrial Sales (Jul YY) 4.8% (Prev. 3.1%).
• Italian Industrial Sales (Jul MM) 0.60% (Prev. -1.00%).
• European Selling Price Expectations (Sep) 20.3 (Prev. 16.9).
• European Industrial Sentiment (Sep) -3.8 vs. Exp. -4.7 (Prev. -5.0).
• European Services Sentiment (Sep) 6.1 vs. Exp. 6.5 (Prev. 5.6).
• European Consumer Confidence Final (Sep) -16.5 vs. Exp. -16.5 (Prev. -16.5).
• European Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep) 35.2 (Prev. 33.0).
• European Economic Sentiment (Sep) 97.9 vs. Exp. 99 (Prev. 98.4).
• UK Net Lending to Individuals (Aug MM) 6.874B vs. Exp. 6.2B (Prev. 6.300B).
• UK BoE Consumer Credit (Aug) 2.464B vs. Exp. 1.9B (Prev. 2.097B).
• UK Mortgage Lending (Aug) 4.41B vs. Exp. 4.4B (Prev. 4.08B).
• UK Mortgage Approvals (Aug) 54.92K vs. Exp. 56.1K (Prev. 55.93K).
• UK M4 Money Supply (Aug MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.3%).
• UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (Sep) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.5%).
• Spanish Retail Sales (Aug YY) -0.4% (Prev. -0.3%).
• Spanish HICP Preliminary (Sep YY) 5.0% (Prev. 4.6%).
• Spanish HICP Preliminary (Sep MM) 0.6% (Prev. 0.7%).
• Spanish CPI Prel (Sep YY) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 4.3%).
• Spanish CPI Prel (Sep MM) 0.3% (Prev. 0.7%).
• Spanish Core CPI Prel (Sep YY) 3.1% (Prev. 2.9%).

CENTRAL BANKS

• [PRESS CONFERENCE] RBA Governor Bullock said inflationary pressures to last longer than expected; inflation is driven by domestic capacity pressures; Board will raise rates again if needed.
• RBA hikes the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.60%, as expected with the decision unanimous, while it stated inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks in August are materialising.
• ECB’s Kazimir said the rate hike was unavoidable, energy prices remain a key factor, and January repricing will be key for him; ECB needs flexibility, it has enough time.
• PBoC injected CNY 90.5bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 698.5bln in overnight reverse repos.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7411 vs Exp. 6.7177 (prev. 6.7399).
• Indonesia's central bank said rupiah weakens on higher global inflation and oil price risk., adds rupiah depreciation is due to worries about global inflation and fiscal risk amid high crude prices and interest rates.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• South Korea's Finance Minister said closely monitoring the bond market and will conduct treasury bond buyback if bond yields rise excessively.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Estonian official said Russia was behind an arson attack on defence maker Milrem Robotics.
• Ukraine's air force reported guided bombs striking the Kharkiv region.
• Russian President Putin orders an increase in the size of the Russian army.
• FT reporter posted after a day of relentless drone attacks, Russia is now hitting Kyiv with a wave of ballistic missiles and several explosions have shaken Ukraine's capital in the last few minutes.

MIDDLE EAST

Iran:

• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said if Iran cannot sell oil, no one in the region will sell oil, and warns that if Iran’s security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe, ISNA reported.
• IRGC reiterates that Iran will never seek a nuclear weapon, Al Jazeera reported; reiterates conflict takes a different form and will bring new weapons to the field. Most of the American bases in the region have been destroyed and can no longer be used again.
• US Secretary of State Rubio tells Fox News Iran has threatened to attack our interests around the world and we are taking those threats very seriously, while he warned there will be repercussions if American interests are attacked.
• Iran Supreme Leader senior adviser warned that if Iran is attacked by the US again, the confrontation will expand to new fronts, according to Press TV.
• Iranian MP said before any negotiations, the US must accept Iran's conditions, reported Fars.
• An explosion was reported in the Strait of Hormuz, which is said to be a commercial ship attempting to pass through the southern route of the Strait, Fars reported citing Ambrey.

Other:

• Houthis reportedly attacked oil facilities in Yanbu on the Red Sea with a large number of ballistic missiles and drones; satellites showed several giant oil storage tanks at the Al-Mu'ajiz terminal in southern Saudi Arabia ablaze, Al Akhbar reported. According to an economic source close to the Ansar Allah movement, who spoke to Al-Akhbar, Sana'a forces have designated Aramco assets in Jizan, Najran, and Yanbu, valued at USD 100bln, as legitimate targets in the current round of fighting. This phase will be followed by the addition of strategic facilities of equal importance to Aramco's to their target bank.
• Intelligence sources say that Houthis expand target bank in Saudi Arabia, according to ILNA.
• N12's Lipkin reported that the commander of Hama's northern Gaza Strip brigade was "eliminated".
• US Treasury Department said Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Lebanon's PM today, while he urged Lebanon to disrupt Iran and Hezbollah networks.
• US Secretary of State Rubio told Lebanon's PM, we support a sovereign Lebanese state free from the harmful influence of Hezbollah and Iran. said:. Tripartite framework is the only way to achieve lasting peace between Lebanon and Israel.
• US Secretary of State Rubio urges Cuba to choose a different path and said the US will not tolerate threat to national security.
• Riyadh airspace experienced threat disruption and flight suspensions with planes held in holding pattern over Riyadh for about 20 minutes, according to SNN.
• North Korea said US approval for South Korea's nuclear submarine increases regional instability.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin (+1.2%) is a touch firmer this morning and trades back above USD 83k; Ethereum (+2.3%) moves back above USD 2.7k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the weak handover from Wall Street, where the major indices were pressured as oil prices and yields continued to climb, amid a slew of conflicting geopolitical headlines.
• ASX 200 traded rangebound with the index kept afloat for most of the session amid outperformance in the local tech, mining and materials industries, but with the upside limited after disappointing Household Spending and with mild pressure seen after the RBA hiked rates as expected and stuck to the hawkish script.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed and tested the 65,000 level to the downside, with the declines led by weakness in refiner and power-related stocks.
• KOSPI was choppy with the index ultimately dragged lower by the tech giants amid recent upside in yields, while South Korea's Finance Minister noted they are closely monitoring the bond market and will conduct a treasury bond buyback if bond yields rise excessively.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with Hong Kong pressured amid weakness in some autonames and as fast fashion retailer Shein slumped after it reported its H1 oper. profit fell by over 50% Y/Y, while the mainland was resilient after the PBoC and government agencies issued guidance to expand capacity and improve the quality of China’s service sector through financial support, and China also asked local governments to pilot high-quality policies to boost consumption.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China has asked local governments to pilot high-quality policies to boost consumption, according to SCMP.
• Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said multi-layered Japan-China communication is important.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

• Japanese Coincident Index Final (Jul) 120.6 (Prev. 118.9).
• Japanese Leading Economic Index Final (Jul) 117.7 vs. Exp. 117.9 (Prev. 116.2).
• Australian Household Spending (Aug YY) 6.8% vs Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 7.0%).
• Australian Household Spending (Aug MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.1%).