Newsquawk Fed Speak Primer/Schedule: Rate hike bets pick up after Waller and hot CPI

The inflation side of the mandate has been the key focus for the Federal Reserve recently, especially since Chair Warsh started his term, and that focus has not shifted, as the Committee remains intent on getting inflation back to its 2% target.

Prior to the US CPI report today, influential Fed Governor Waller said that a half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, though he would support a quarter-point hike even if CPI improves, adding further tightening will be needed. He called US inflation too high and September’s data bad, citing concern over breadth of price increases.

The CPI print came in hotter than expected, as core M/M printed 0.3% (3dp 0.296%), meeting Waller's threshold and above the expected 0.2%. Headline M/M rose 0.4% (3dp 0.350%), surpassing Wall St. expectations of 0.3%, albeit easing from September's 0.6%. Looking ahead, hopes of a Middle East de-escalation are pulling energy costs lower, with retail gasoline prices now below USD 4/gallon for the first time since mid-July. If that continues, ING writes it should provide a meaningful drag on November headline inflation, but the Federal Reserve will not get that data until the day after the December FOMC meeting.

In terms of the upcoming Fed speakers, there are plenty scheduled, and they take on even greater importance given Waller’s hawkish remarks as participants await the 9th December confab. The influential NY Fed President Williams is always closely watched, while the recent hawkish dissenters will be monitored for signs of whether a broader hawkish bloc is forming ahead of December. At the last meeting, where the Fed left rates unchanged, Cook and Hammack voted in favour of a 25bps hike - Hammack is speaking on Thursday this week, with no Cook comments currently scheduled. The dissents before that came at the July meeting, when Hammack (again), Logan and Kashkari voted for a 25bps hike, vs. the decision to leave rates on hold.

• 15:50GMT/10:50EST: Logan (2026 voter) gives opening remarks at energy conference
• 18:30GMT/13:30EST: Schmid (2028 voter) takes part in fireside chat
• 20:30GMT/15:30EST: Bowman (voter) on the economic outlook
• 23:30GMT/18:30EST: Paulson (2026 voter) on the economic outlook

• 14:00GMT/09:00EST: Hammack (2026 voter) takes part in moderated conversation
• 16:30GMT/11:30EST: Goolsbee (2027 voter) speaks at Yahoo! Finance event
• 18:10GMT/13:10EST: Daly (2027 voter) speaks on policy in the age of AI
• 18:30GMT/13:30EST: Schmid (2028 voter) on the economic outlook
• 23:30GMT/18:30EST: Williams (voter) takes part in panel discussion

• 14:10GMT/09:10EST: Collins (2028 voter) gives opening remarks
• 15:50GMT/10:50EST: Bowman (voter) on supervision and regulation
• 16:10GMT/11:10EST: Daly (2027 voter) speaks at UNLV
• 00:00GMT/19:00EST: Jefferson (voter) speaks at UC San Diego

• 14:05GMT/09:05EST: Williams (voter) delivers opening remarks
• 17:00GMT/12:00EST: Chair Warsh gives opening remarks

• 14:30GMT/09:30EST: Hammack (2026 voter) discusses Treasury market

• 19:30GMT/14:30EST: Williams (voter) speaks at a New York Fed event

Money Market pricing: Now assign a 10% probability of a 50bps hike in December. Implied bps priced in by the market post and pre-CPI; calculated via CME FedWatch

• Dec 27.6bps (prev. 24.7bps)

• Jan 37.9bps (prev. 33.9bps)
• Mar 52.6bps (prev. 46.6bps)
• Apr 57.4bps (prev. 51.3bps)
• Jun 65.8bps (prev. 57.9bps)
• Jul 66.7bps (prev. 58.3bps)
• Sep 67.6bps (prev. 59.5bps)
• Oct 66.6bps (prev. 58.9bps)

• Dec 63.0bps (prev. 55.7bps)

• A 25bps hike is now fully discounted for December 2026, with a slight probability of a 50bps move now being priced.

Conditional guidance of the kind Waller has offered, where a named official pre-commits to a decision rule tied to a specific core CPI threshold, has historically been a strong tell because it converts the next data print into a binary repricing event for the meeting in question, and the front end has tended to follow the median voter rather than the individual voice. The relevant distinction is between headline disinflation and core persistence: energy-led drags on headline have rarely stayed a hiking Fed's hand when core month-on-month rates are running above comfort, and the composition argument cited here, breadth of increases, is the one that has previously kept tightening cycles alive past the point where gasoline relief was visible. The dissent pattern is the second channel worth isolating; a repeat dissenter joined by rotating colleagues has, in past tightening episodes, been the early signature of a bloc that eventually pulls the consensus, which is why the named speakers from that group carry more weight than their voting status alone suggests. The timing wrinkle matters too: with the next CPI print landing after the December decision, the Committee prices that meeting on the data in hand, which raises the information content of speaker commentary between now and the blackout and compresses the repricing window. Money market pricing moving to fully discount a quarter-point move with a tail probability on fifty is the established pattern when an influential governor's stated threshold is met; the follow-on is whether leadership-adjacent voices validate or walk back the framing.