Newswire poll showed 18 out of 35 economists expect the BoK to hike rates by 25bps to 3.00%, while 17 expect rates to be kept unchanged at the current 2.75% level

A near-even split in a consensus poll is itself the information: when surveys divide this tightly, the decision tends to hinge on the governor's framing and the distribution of votes rather than on the headline call, and the won has historically been more sensitive to the accompanying statement and any dissent count than to the rate outcome alone. The distinction worth drawing is between a split poll that resolves into consensus by decision day and one that stays divided; the former usually means a well-signalled move with limited repricing, the latter raises the odds of a surprise in either direction and a correspondingly sharper move in front-end Korean rates and FX. Actors to track are the board's known swing members and the governor's recent tone, since in past episodes of this kind the chair's language in the days before the meeting has been the more reliable guide than the median economist. Follow-ons include any pre-meeting commentary from officials, the vote split and forward guidance in the statement, and whether the board pairs a hold with hawkish language, a combination that has tended to flatten the expected path rather than remove it.