OECD projects global growth will slow to 2.8% in 2026, down from 3.4% in 2025; sees a recovery to 2.7% in 2027 assuming a short-lived conflict in the Middle East
- "A persistent conflict extending into 2027 could trigger a sharper slowdown to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, potentially pushing some economies into recession."
- "Sustained energy supply disruptions could add up to 1.3 percentage points to global inflation by 2027, likely forcing central banks to raise interest rates by 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points."
- US GDP growth is projected at 2.0% in 2026 before slowing to 1.8% in 2027.
- EZ GDP growth is projected to remain modest at 0.8% in 2026 before picking up to 1.2% in 2027.
- China’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.5% this year and 4.3% in 2027.
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