Oman says oil tanker Elgaia is being towed to an Omani port after an engine-room fire following an attack off the Omani coast

In comparable episodes the market response has followed a consistent sequence: an initial risk premium in crude futures, with the sharper and more durable moves in the freight and insurance complex, where war-risk premia for Gulf transits reprice within days of an incident. The distinction that has mattered historically is between isolated attacks, which have tended to fade from crude pricing once transit continuity is confirmed, and episodes forming part of a sustained campaign, which have kept front-end spreads bid and altered tanker routing and charter behaviour. Attribution is the key follow-on: where responsibility has been credibly assigned to a state or proxy actor, escalation risk and the duration of the premium have been greater than in unattributed cases. The towing to port and crew status speak to severity of damage, which historically has mattered less to pricing than whether further incidents follow. Confirmation of the vessel's flag, ownership, and cargo, plus any official attribution, is the next tell.