OPEC MOMR to be released at 13:00BST/08:00EDT on Tuesday 13th October

The OPEC monthly report is one of the three recurring supply-demand assessments that set the tone in crude, alongside the IEA's monthly report and the US weekly inventory data, and its release timing is fixed rather than a signal in itself. The report carries OPEC's own demand growth forecasts and, more importantly for traders, the call on OPEC and the implied balance; revisions to non-OPEC supply and to demand growth have historically mattered more than the headline numbers, since it is the direction of successive revisions that shifts positioning rather than any single print. Given that OPEC's forecasts have tended to sit at the optimistic end of the range relative to other agencies, the gap between this report and the IEA's view is often as informative as the report itself. Secondary detail worth noting is member production compliance and output from exempt or sanctioned producers, which feed directly into the effective spare capacity debate. Market reaction to the MOMR is typically second-order unless the revisions are large, with the report more often confirming than reversing the prevailing trend.