Opening or closing the Strait of Hormuz depends on the overall situation in the region, reports Al Mayadeen citing a high-ranking source

• The Strait of Hormuz will certainly not be opened as long as the US continues its aggression, blockade, and other provocative measures against Iran.
• The American military presence in the region is the main problem and that no regional country desires war.

Threats to close Hormuz are a recurring feature of Iran-linked escalatory cycles and have historically been wielded as leverage rather than executed; a full sustained closure has never actually occurred, even during the tanker-war episodes of prior decades when shipping was attacked but the strait stayed open. The established pattern is rhetorical conditioning first, then harassment of individual vessels or seizures, with outright mining or blockade treated as a last resort given it would cut Iran's own crude exports and invite direct military response. The transmission channel when such rhetoric gains traction is freight and war-risk insurance premia, plus a geopolitical premium in front-month crude, with the prompt spread firming ahead of the back of the curve; Asian importers are the most exposed given the share of Gulf barrels flowing east. The conditional framing here, closure tied to continued US pressure, reads as deterrent positioning rather than an operational decision, consistent with past episodes where attribution to unnamed senior sources allowed escalation or walk-back without commitment. Worth noting is the sourcing through a regional outlet rather than official state media, which in prior cycles has signalled messaging rather than policy. The tells are tanker traffic through the strait, insurance rate quotes, and whether any formal Iranian body repeats the formulation.