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PBoC Q3 Monetary Policy Implementation report says the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth

Newsquawk Staff ·

Monetary policy outlook

  • PBoC to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policy
  • Will step up counter-cyclical adjustments to support economic growth
  • PBoC to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose financing conditions
  • Monetary policy tools to be adjusted as appropriate depending on economic and financial conditions
  • PBoC to enhance flexibility, forward-looking nature and precision of monetary policy
  • PBoC will calibrate strength, pace and timing of monetary policy implementation
  • Growth in social financing and money supply to be kept in line with economic growth and price targets
  • PBoC to improve monetary policy transmission mechanism
  • Central bank to steadily advance reforms to monetary policy operating framework

Interest rates and financing costs

  • PBoC to guide short-term money market rates to move steadily around policy rate
  • Central bank to keep overall financing costs at low levels
  • PBoC to strengthen implementation and supervision of interest rate policies
  • Loan pricing to shift towards more diversified benchmarks, reducing reliance on LPR
  • PBoC says loan prime rate reforms continue to improve monetary policy transmission
  • PBoC to further reduce intermediary financing fees for businesses

Credit support and structural tools

  • PBoC to strengthen financial support for domestic demand, technological innovation and small businesses
  • Central bank to increase financial support for key infrastructure projects
  • Financial support for private sector development to continue
  • PBoC to improve design and management of structural monetary policy tools

Yuan and foreign exchange policy

  • PBoC to keep yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable and balanced level
  • Central bank to maintain exchange rate flexibility under managed floating regime
  • Market supply and demand to continue playing decisive role in exchange rate formation
  • PBoC to strengthen foreign exchange market resilience and stabilise expectations
  • Will guard against risks of excessive yuan exchange rate movements
  • Yuan to continue acting as automatic stabiliser for economy and balance of payments
  • PBoC to promote integration of onshore and offshore yuan markets

Financial stability

  • PBoC to expand macroprudential and financial stability functions
  • Central bank to enhance policy toolkit to maintain stable financial markets
  • Efforts to prevent and resolve financial risks to continue
  • PBoC vows to prevent systemic financial risks
  • Central bank to strengthen risk resolution at key regional financial institutions

Economic assessment

  • China's economy remains broadly stable, with improving growth drivers and structure
  • Chinese economy faces challenges from strong supply, weak demand and structural divergence
  • External environment has become more complex and volatile
  • Global economic growth lacks resilience amid geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions
  • Uncertainty persists over global inflation and monetary policy adjustments
  • China to step up efforts to expand domestic demand and optimise supply
  • Authorities to work towards achieving full-year economic and social development targets

What it means

The quarterly monetary policy implementation report is the PBoC's most comprehensive guidance vehicle, and its language shifts are parsed closely because changes in set phrases have historically preceded operational moves; the retention of the moderately loose framing keeps the easing bias in place without committing to near-term action. Reports of this kind tend to matter more for what follows operationally than for the text itself: the usual sequence is that dovish report language is tested by subsequent open market operations, MLF and LPR fixings, and reserve requirement adjustments, with the front end of the CNY rates curve and the onshore-offshore yuan basis the first places such signals transmit. The explicit reference to reducing reliance on the LPR as a benchmark is the more structurally interesting line, signalling continued evolution of the rate corridor framework rather than an immediate repricing event. On the currency, the stable-yuan language paired with guarding against excessive movement is the standard formulation that has accompanied both smoothing operations and tolerance of gradual depreciation in past episodes; the tell has been the daily fixing's deviation from modelled estimates. The next items on the calendar are the monthly LPR fixings and any shift in liquidity injection sizes, which have been the usual channels through which this guidance is confirmed or walked back.

Sources

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