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PCE expectations: Pantheon Macroeconomics estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.26% in March, lifting inflation rate to 3.1% from 2.9% in February

Pantheon Macroeconomics' provisional estimate indicates a rise in the core PCE deflator by 0.26%, pushing the inflation rate up to 3.1%.

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PCE expectations: Pantheon Macroeconomics estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.26% in March, lifting inflation rate to 3.1% from 2.9% in February

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  • Pantheon Macroeconomics: "Provisionally estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.26% in March, lifting the inflation rate to 3.1%, from 2.9% in February. Our estimate, however, is liable to change as around one-third of the components of the deflator are derived from non-CPI data."
Context

This shift may signal a more persistent inflation trend, complicating the Federal Reserve's stance on rate policy, particularly if confirmed by actual data. Traders should be cautious, as a significant portion of this estimate may be subject to revision, which could affect market expectations in the near term.

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