Polish CPI Final (Sep YY) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.4%)

Final national CPI prints in this series rarely surprise relative to the flash estimate, so the size of any revision here is itself informative: it suggests the preliminary calculation understated the underlying components, which historically has mattered more to the central bank than the headline level. Episodes where Polish inflation re-accelerates after a period of policy easing have tended to be driven by administered and regulated energy costs, food prices, and wage growth feeding services, and the central bank's reaction function has consistently leaned on core measures rather than headline. The distinction worth drawing is between a supply-side re-acceleration in regulated prices, which the central bank has historically looked through, and broadening services and core pressure, which has previously stalled easing cycles. Zloty and front-end rates response to such prints has typically been modest and fading unless the core breakdown confirms the direction. The follow-ons that have mattered in comparable episodes are the core inflation estimate that trails the headline and any change in tone from the central bank's next communication, since it is the median of the rate-setting council rather than any single print that has set the path.