Political adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader says the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened until US President Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu are “brought down from the seat of power”, Tasnim reports

In past episodes of this kind, the distinction that has mattered most is between rhetoric that frames closure as leverage with an exit condition and rhetoric that frames it as indefinite: the former has historically faded from crude pricing within weeks as physical flows prove resilient, the latter embeds a persistent geopolitical premium in the front of the Brent and WTI curves and in freight and insurance rates for Gulf transits. Advisers to the Supreme Leader speaking through semi-official agencies tend to signal the hardest line rather than the operative one; actual reopening decisions have in comparable standoffs been taken quietly and justified after the fact. The transmission channels are established: tanker rerouting, war-risk premiums, refinery runs in Asia given its dependence on Gulf crude, and the usual haven bid in gold and, inconsistently, the dollar. What is worth watching is whether this formulation is repeated by officials with executive authority or confined to the adviser tier, whether naval escort or alternative routing arrangements emerge, and any back-channel sequencing between Washington, Tehran, and the Gulf states.