PRE-MARKET AUSTRALIAN STOCKS NEWS: Fortescue (FMG AT) Q1 iron ore shipments fell 6% Y/Y to 46.8mln tonnes

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PRE-MARKET AUSTRALIAN STOCKS NEWS: Fortescue (FMG AT) Q1 iron ore shipments fell 6% Y/Y to 46.8mln tonnes

Venezuela's Cardon refinery is resuming crude distillation after a fire, according to workers

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Coles Group (COL AT) - Co. has reportedly put a AUD 250mln portfolio of neighbourhood shopping centres up for sale amid strong investor demand for retail assets. (The Australian)

Fortescue (FMG AT) - Co. Q1 iron ore shipments fell 6% Y/Y to 46.8mln tonnes, hematite realised price was USD 80/t or 82% of the index, capex was USD 900mln, and Co. had USD 3.2bln cash and USD 2.8bln net debt at September-end; Co. maintained FY27 shipment, unit cost and capex guidance and will announce Q1 production on October 22. (Dow Jones Newsplus)

GPT Group (GPT AT) - GPT Wholesale Office Fund has reportedly put around AUD 700mln of prime Melbourne and Sydney office assets on the market to meet nearly AUD 1.5bln in investor redemptions. (The Australian)

Ramelius Resources (RMS AT) - Co. Q1 gold output was 48,839oz, underlying free cash flow was AUD 60.2mln, cash and gold balance was AUD 768.0mln at September-end, and Co. remains on track for FY27 output guidance of 205-225k oz while continuing its AUD 250mln share buyback with AUD 18mln repurchased in Q1. (Dow Jones Newsplus)

REA Group (REA AT) - Co. said Q1 Australian listings fell 2% Y/Y and volumes were in line with guidance, with Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide outperforming quieter Sydney and Melbourne conditions, while buyer activity is expected to improve as interest rates stabilise. (Dow Jones Newsplus)

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AT) - Co. has cut 170 mostly office roles as part of a restructuring expected to contribute to AUD 100mln in annual savings. (The Australian)

West African Resources (WAF AT) - Co. Q3 gold output was 127,950oz and sales were 135,245oz at a realised price of USD 4,240/oz, taking FY-to-date output to 360,857oz and sales to 350,127oz at USD 4,550/oz, while Co. remains on track for annual guidance of 430-490k oz and has begun mining at M5 South Underground. (Dow Jones Newsplus)

Firmus Technologies - Co.'s planned IPO has reportedly been pulled after weak investor support, while a separate report noted the proposed AUD 11/shr offer price is said to be cut to AUD 8.25/shr. (The Australian/AFR)

Broker Ratings/Price Target

  • Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AT) price target raised 3.1% to AUD 67.00/shr by Macquarie.
  • ASX (ASX AT) price target raised 2.0% to AUD 65.50/shr by UBS.
  • Xero (XRO AT) price target cut 19% to AUD 91.55/shr by Citi.

Context

A first-quarter shipment miss at Fortescue lands in a familiar pattern for Australian iron ore producers: the September quarter has historically been the seasonally weakest, with maintenance schedules and weather disruptions compressing volumes before the run-rate rebuilds into the second half, and the read across from Pilbara peers has usually been judged on that seasonal basis rather than as a trend break. The more instructive lines are the maintained full-year shipment, unit cost and capex guidance, which signals management views the shortfall as timing rather than structural, and the realised price discount to the index, which for Fortescue has persistently run wider than the higher-grade majors given its lower-grade product mix and tends to widen when Chinese steel mill margins favour premium ores. The balance sheet detail matters for the dividend calculus: net debt at this scale sits comfortably within the range the market has historically tolerated before questioning the payout, so the distribution debate stays parked unless costs or the discount deteriorate. The follow-ons are the production report, peer shipment prints from the other majors, and Chinese port inventories and steel demand data, since the shipment gap only becomes a pricing issue for the index if it coincides with broader supply softness rather than single-producer seasonality.

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